Experts temper government`s euphoria
THE INDIAN government claims that during the final round of negotiations on the Dunkel Draft Text, it gained "significant assurances" on short-term access of trained, skilled and semiskilled Indian personnel to European and American markets. Experts in the field are, however, not as optimistic.
Provisions relating to the proposed General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) would allow considerable "short-term movement of skilled personnel to provide a range of professional services in areas such as software programming and financial management," according to India's principal negotiator at the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) talks, B K Zutshi. Software programming has been a key growth area in India during 1983-93. Sixty per cent of the country's software exports, which increased from Rs 250 crore to Rs 675 crore in that period, are to the US. However, over the past two years, the US has placed many barriers on the entry of Indian software programmers.
While the new GATT is expected to lower these barriers, the value of professional services that India will be able to export is uncertain. Charan Wadhwa, senior fellow at the Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, cautioned: "There are structural deficiencies in our skilled humanpower base for even software programming."
Experts feel poor telecommunication facilities prevent Indian firms from providing adequate support to the personnel sent on short-term assignments abroad. Says Niranjan Rao of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, "Despite the encouraging growth rates shown by the industry in recent years, it is incorrect to make point-blank statements that we have everything in software programming."
The government's determination to deny multinational companies a major share of the markets in banking, insurance and basic telecommunications is also expected to slow down the growth of services' export. Says former commerce secretary S P Shukla, "There is nothing in the text of the new GATT that will facilitate the ready availability of international markets to our skilled and unskilled labour." According to him, much would depend on bilateral negotiations carried out by India.