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Falling count

Falling count NEVER before have birth rates fallen so low and for so long in Europe as at present, except in times of plague, war and deep economic depression. There is not a single country in Europe where people are having enough children to replace themselves when they die. Recently, Italy became the first country in history where there are more people over the age of 60 than there are under the age of 20. Germany, Greece and Spain will probably reach the same figures this year.

This trend can be seen much beyond Europe. Last year Japan's fertility rate the number of children born to the average woman in a lifetime fell to 1.39, the lowest it has ever reached in that country. In the us, where a large pool of new immigrants helps keep the birth rate higher than in any other prosperous country, the figure is slightly below an average of 2.1 children per woman the magic number needed to keep the population from starting to shrink.

Unlike the us, Europe has been resistant to immigration. Decades ago in Sweden, with its birth rate dwindling, officials decided to try to increase the number of new borns by financially supporting family life with rare public generosity. Working couples with small children enjoyed cash payments, tax incentives and job leaves combined with incredible flexibility to work part time for as many as eight years after a child's birth.

Sweden spends 10 times more than Italy and Spain on programmes intended to support families. The result was that Sweden recorded the highest birth rate in Europe in 1991. But between 1990 and 1995, the birth rate fell from 2.12 to 1.6. Most people blamed the economy which had turned sour and had forced politicians to trim the country's benefit programmes.

Even in the developing world, where overcrowding remains a major issue, the pace of growth has slowed down. Since 1965, according to the United Nations population data, birth rates in developing countries have been halved from six children per woman to three. In the last decade alone, for example, the figure in Bangladesh has fallen from 6.2 children per woman to 3.4. "Nobody on Earth can tell you what is going on here," says Mac Murray, a philosopher trained in statistics. "Sometimes I think it must be just a blip we've had them before and everything will turn out the way we expect it to," he says. "But I do not really believe that. I believe we are seeing a fundamental shift in human behaviour."

In surveys held in Europe, young couples almost always report that they want two children. But they have reservations. "I would like to have a child but my work situation is unstable," says Francesca Casotti, a lawyer in Rome who has been married for nine months. "I am at the office all day and it is difficult to think about having a child. People my age want their freedom," she says. "People see children as a burden, as an inconvenience. I would like to have a stable job and would like to have more than one child. But economic considerations and time will not allow me to do that," she adds.

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