Rising temperatures, rising tensions: climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East

In a region already considered the world's most water scarce and where, in many places, demand for water already outstrips supply, climate models are predicting a hotter, drier and less predictable climate in the Middle East. By redrawing maps of water availability, food security, disease prevalence, population distribution and coastal boundaries, climate change may hold serious implications for regional security. This report examines whether the legacy of conflict in the Levant undermines the ability of the region to adapt to climate change, outlines the threats that climate change could pose to regional security, and suggests strategies that can be pursued for peace and sustainable development despite a changing climate.