Vulnerability hotspots: integrating socioeconomic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline due to climate change induced drought

Crop models demonstrate that food production is vulnerable to climate change in many regions through a combination of temperature change, water stress and extreme weather. Although there is considerable uncertainty in these models, and some debate way that ozone pollution, carbon dioxide fertilization, and water shortages may interact with climate change to affect productivity, there is a general concern in the literature that these problems are likely to cause food production to fall over the next 100 years. The aim of this paper is better integrate socio-economic and meteorological data to conduct a global scale quantitative assessment that identifies which of the world’s cereal producing regions may become vulnerable to climate change over the 21st century.