South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-3) Pune, India, 19-20 April 2012: Consensus Statement

A consensus outlook for the 2012 southwest monsoon rainfall over South Asia was developed, through an expert assessment of the available indications. The outlook was prepared based on the various prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different empirical and dynamical climate models. It is recognized that there is uncertainty partly because of transition of La Niña conditions to neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and some possibility for the emergence of El Niño during the later part of the monsoon season. The consensus outlook indicates that the large-scale summer monsoon rainfall for South Asia and the season (June – September) as a whole would most likely to be within the normal range. However, there is also a slight tendency for the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall to be below normal. full text: