Climate change and extreme events: impacts on Pakistan’s agriculture
Due to its arid to semi-arid climate, water is the single most constraining factor to Pakistani agriculture. Water resources are heavily appropriated for productive uses, and agriculture is the main user of water resources. Over eighty percent of crop value comes from irrigated agriculture. Demand for water is increasing from population growth and industrial and agricultural development. Moreover, water resources are threatened by drought and long-term climate change through its effect on temperature, precipitation, and glacier runoff. Given the country’s reliance on scarce water resources, its availability and variability remain closely linked to Pakistan’s overall economic development. For example, the severe drought of 1999-2002 contributed to the country’s economic contraction, while the above average rainfall and availability of irrigation water during 2003-2005 supported agricultural recovery and growth during that period. This policy note presents results of two studies examining effects of drought and climate change on Pakistan’s agriculture sector.