Long-term impact of Moscow heat wave and wildfires on mortality
In the summer of 2010, most of the European part of Russia suffered a heat wave that was unprecedented both in strength and duration, which led to 55,000 excess deaths during this period. In Moscow alone, an estimated 10,900 excess deaths from non-accidental causes occurred during the 44-day heat wave and a shorter smog episode caused by wildfires around the city. Although the short-term forward mortality displacement (typically within 15 or 30 days after heat stress) has been well described, there are few publications on long-term health consequences of heat waves. It has been proposed that the mortality displacement (ie, the ratio between the deficit after the heat event and the excess during the event) diminishes with the event’s strength, but the strongest heat events are likely to have pronounced long-term consequences. For example, the displacement within 1 year after the 2003 heat wave in France was about 20%.