First stage forecast of southwest monsoon season-2017 rainfall

India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues various monthly and seasonal forecasts of rainfall for the southwest monsoon season (June to September). Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season rainfall are issued in two stages. The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June. These forecasts are prepared using state of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) that is critically reviewed and improved regularly through in-house research activities. Since 2012, IMD has been using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model, which was developed under the Monsoon Mission.

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