2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s view of energy demand and supply through 2040. A significant energy transition is underway, and many factors will shape the world’s energy future. These include government ambitions and policies that seek to promote prosperity while also addressing the risks of climate change. The recent Paris Agreement on climate change provided significant insights on governments’ intentions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the inclusion in the agreement of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Policies adopted to support NDCs will likely affect supply and use of energy across society. This year’s Outlook includes several sensitivities on specific areas of interest to provide greater perspective on how changes to our base Outlook assumptions could affect the energy landscape. This year’s Outlook also includes a new section, “Pursuing a 2oC Pathway.” This section utilizes work coordinated by the Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University. It provides a view of potential pathways toward a 2oC climate goal, and the implications such pathways might have in terms of global energy intensity, carbon intensity of the world’s energy mix and global demand for various energy sources. The section concludes with a discussion of the need to pursue practical, cost-effective solutions to address multiple goals simultaneously. The Outlook anticipates significant changes through 2040 across the world to boost living standards, reshape the use of energy, broaden access to abundant energy supplies, and accelerate decarbonization of the world’s energy system to address the risks of climate change.