Narratives, data and assumptions used to model development scenarios and climate sub-scenarios for Rwanda

In order to explore the potential co-evolution of agricultural transformation and energy transition in Rwanda, and to highlight the trade-offs and synergies between them, SEI and the Albertine Rift Conservation Society (ARCOS) have undertaken participatory scenario-building activities using SEI’s energy and water planning tools: Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP). The results could help inform the upcoming process of developing Rwanda’s Vision 2050 and current implementation of its medium-term National Strategy for Transformation and Prosperity (2018–2024). This report presents an overview of the development scenarios for Rwanda co-created with stakeholders and explored using LEAP and WEAP. It first presents two different narratives of how Rwanda might develop by 2050. It then presents how translated these narratives into the scenarios in the models, using certain assumptions and data.