Evaluation of a combined drought indicator and its potential for agricultural drought prediction in southern Spain

A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The performance of this indicator was evaluated against crop damage data from agricultural insurance schemes in five different areas in SW Spain. Results show that this indicator was able to predict important droughts in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, marked by crop damage of between 70% and 95% of the total insured area. This opens important applications for improving insurance schemes.

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