Climate change, vulnerability and security in the Sahel: three scenarios for Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger in 2050

Looking ahead to 2050, this paper presents three scenarios for the part of the Sahel comprising Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Each scenario is characterised by a different level of vulnerability and resilience to the future effects of climate change, depending on the social, political and economic parameters that characterise it. Thus, each scenario presents different challenges and opportunities for the security and development of the region. The main purpose of the scenarios is to describe and assess these challenges in order to facilitate anticipatory action.