The number game
Counting elephants in the wild is an unenviable task. One can conduct complete census or do statistical studies to estimate populations in a particular region. Census techniques have improved with time and some scientists believe that some increase in the population figures could be attributed to the improvement. But other critics warn: "Don't get taken in by the so-called experts who prefer the elephant remains in the Endangered List, so that they can get funds in the name of another animal on the verge of extinction. The improved census could be only a minor factor in the increased census numbers.'
And though the statistical studies show better results, the forest department does not have the technical capacity to undertake such studies. Take the case of northern West Bengal populations. Mukti Roy, field researcher with the Asian Elephant Research Centre (AERC) works in the Buxa Tiger reserve. He says, "Whereas the census show about 300 odd elephants, statistical studies show that the populations could be as many as 500."
And it is not only the absolute population size that matters ultimately. The sex ratios, the average herd sizes - all make a difference to how viable the populations will be in the long run. In Periyar tiger reserve, incessant poaching had skewed the male to female sex ratio from 1:6 recorded in 1969 to 1:122 in 1989. This has obvious dangers. A skewed sex ratio can bring a population to a genetic precipice, reduce fecundity and decrease growth rates over time. Raman Sukumar of aerc says, in an undisturbed population of Asian elephant in India anormal sex ratio should be about 1:3.
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