Real-time experimental extended range forecast system for Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a case study for monsoon 2011
The variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; both at interannual as well as intraseasonal timescales) has a direct impact on various sectors of public interest and economy such as agriculture, water resource, etc. So, the need of real-time extended range forecast system of the ISMR (monthly to seasonal scale) is not overstated. The present study is aimed at developing such a forecast system to predict rainfall (monthly and seasonal mean) one month in advance over 34 meteorological subdivisions of India for climate risk management in agriculture.