Transport outlook 2012: seamless transport for greener growth
The mobility projections in this Transport Outlook indicate that global passenger transport volumes in 2050 could be up to 2.5 times as large as in 2010, and freight volumes could grow by a factor of four. Emissions of CO2 grow more slowly because of increasing energy efficiency, but may nevertheless more than double. The projected evolution of mobility depends on income and population growth, and on urbanization. The relation between framework conditions and mobility is uncertain and not immutable and the Transport Outlook examines a number of plausible policy scenarios including the potential effects of prices and mobility policies that are less car-oriented in urban settings. In this scenario, two-wheeler use in particular could contribute significantly to mobility growth in non-OECD regions. Low car ownership with increased two-wheeler use and somewhat lower overall mobility results in much lower emissions of CO2. More generally, the future growth of global mobility and of CO2 emissions depends strongly on the development of urban mobility. Mobility policies can slow down CO2 emission growth but cannot by themselves stop it; energy technology is the key to actually reducing the transport sector’s global carbon footprint.