A nuclear windfall
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08/02/2009
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Business India (Mumbai)
Curiously, the opening up of India's nuclear energy market has seen a simultaneous nuclear renaissance in the US and UK
Nuclear technology titans the world over are vying for the $150 billion sweepstakes of India's nuclear power market now being pried open up by the US-India civil nuclear cooperation agreement of October 2006.
Last fortnight alone saw the largest ever American commercial nuclear energy delegation visiting Delhi and Mumbai over five days, followed by a four-day prospective tour of the two cities by a British nuclear trade mission. Canada's International Trade minister Stockwell Day too arrived on a five-day official visit, accompanied by representatives from Cameco Corporation, the world's single largest producer of uranium, snc-Lavalin Nuclear, Canada's largest private sector nuclear engineering group, and Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (aecl), that designed and developed the candu Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (phwr) that India had adopted in its pursuit of atomic energy.
These visitors have already been preceded by similar prospectors from France, Japan, Russia and from the US and the UK as well.
Next in line was the central Asian country of Kazakhstan, the second largest producer of uranium after Canada. Australia has the largest proven deposits, but has politically decided to operate only three mines and have no commercial nuclear plant on its territory. Kazakhstan's state-owned Kazatomprom signed a strategic agreement with its counterpart, Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (npcil), during Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's visit to India as chief guest at the Republic Day celebrations on 26 January.
To access technology
India wishes to not only source uranium, but also leverage Kazatom-prom's 10 per cent stake in Pittsburgh-based Westinghouse Electric Corp to access the latter's nuclear power generation technology. Westinghouse is a group company of Toshiba Corp on account of the latter's 67 per cent stake in it, and Toshiba itself had offloaded the 10 per cent stake to Kazatomprom for $540 million in order to gain access to its uranium stockpiles.
The American mission, which was supported by the US-India Business Council (usmc) and the Nuclear Energy Institute, had more than 60 senior executives representing over 30 leading commercial nuclear companies, usibc envisions $150 billion of business between US and Indian companies over the next 30 years, as a result of the bilateral nuclear trade agreement.
Although the UK does not have its own reactor design, it has a breadth of nuclear expertise, which, together with the US delegations, encompassed the full range of experience in the nuclear power sector, covering design, engineering, technology and environmental assessment, safety, regulatory and liabilities issues, decommissioning and waste management.
Even while India is yet to establish an ennabling regime and amend its Atomic Energy Act of 1962 to permit private sector and overseas participation, the enthused visitors met and negotiated with key government officials and top executives of the Department of Atomic Energy, npcil, National Thermal Power Corporation (ntpc) and other leading public, and also private, sector undertakings.
Arthur de Montalembert, chairman and managing director of Areva India Pvt Ltd, which opened its office for nuclear energy in Mumbai last November, is clear that issues such as those relating to nuclear liability and intellectual property protection need attention in India. Areva, largely owned by the French government, is the largest nuclear engineering firm, having built 100 nuclear plants worldwide that account for a third of the world's installed nuclear generating capacity. Montalembert also believes that procedures for export licensing and for overseas companies to engage in commercial partnerships with their Indian counterparts should be clarified. He is, however, confident that these issues would be resolved before the signing of any major supply contract. Areva has already signed a contract with npcl for the sale of 300 tonnes of uranium for the Rajasthan reactor.
Led by Steve Hucik, vice-president, Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (abwr) Projects, General Electric Hitachi Nuclear Energy (geh), the US delegation brought together some of the world's nuclear energy behemoths, including geh, Westinghouse, Bechtel Nuclear, Shaw Group, Babcock & Wilcox, Black & Veatch, Fluor, ch2m Hill, Curtiss-Wright, Holtec International, Thorium Power, Converdyn, usec and Canada's Uranium One, Inc. and Cameco. The list of UK companies included Rolls Royce, pb Power, amec, Urenco and the Nuclear Industry Association, representing over 160 firms.
They undoubtedly see enormous promise in India's ambitious goal of expanding its nuclear generating capacity to 30,000 mw by 2020 and 60,000 mw by 2030. India's 15 phwrs and two Boiling Water Reactors (bwrs) in operation have a combined installed capacity of 4,120 Mwe. Six more reacors, of 3,160 Mwe, are under construction. The 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12) foresees the addition of eight indigenously fabricated 700 Mwe phwrs, three 500 Mwe Fast Breeder Reactors (fbrs) and one 300 Mwe Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (ahwr), and the import of ten 1,000 Mwe Light Water Reactors (lwrs). Looking further ahead, augmentation plans include construction of 25 to 30 lwrs of at least 1,000 Mwe by 2030.
Curiously, around the time India was forging its nuclear deal with the US and the 45-country Nuclear Suppliers' Group was endorsing this agreement, the White House and Westminster started heeding the demands of American and British nuclear utility operators to revitalise the nuclear power industries in their respective countries. As many as 103 nuclear power plants were built across the US, between 1963 and 1973, after which no new ones have been erected. Grossly overbuilt on expectations of runaway energy requirements, nuclear power became uneconomical when this did not materialise, especially because of uncertain licensing procedures for investments in nuclear power.
New generation reactors
In the UK too, the last nuclear power station to have been built was Sizewell B in Suffolk, erected between 1988 and 1995. But the Gordon Brown regime decided to end this 20-year hiatus by approving a new generation of reactors to help balance high carbon generating power systems. Ten nuclear stations are likely to be built, at a cost of $2.4 billion each.
Such a revival in the US and the UK is driving a global nuclear renaissance, which has already seen plans for over 30 new reactors in the US. A UK office for Nuclear Development Programme was being set up to ensure an effective nuclear supply chain.
S.K. Jain, chairman and managing director, npcil, says the four vendors shortlisted by his agency for supplying reactors are geh, Westinghouse, Areva and Rosatom, Russia's atomic energy agency that is building the two 1,000 Mwe vver light water reactors in Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu. There is an option for constructing four more such reactors, while Areva has been sounded out for six of its 1,650 Mwe Evolutionary Power Reactor (epr), the world's first-built advanced generation III+ reactor, at Jaitapur in Maharashtra's Ratnagiri district. geh is offering its abwr as the world's "first and only Generation III reactor", while Westinghouse has on offer its API000 as the "only Generation III+ nuclear power plant". Montalembert maintains, however, that the vvers and geh's and Westing-house's offerings are advanced generation II and not III reactors, which Areva's epr is. He indicates that the generation III+ Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (esbwr) design of geh is yet under review of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for final design certification. Generation III+ designs employ more passive safety features, including further design evolutions that simplify the reactor, allowing faster construction and lower costs.
The next generation of nuclear plants, Generation IV, is yet being devised and includes such designs as gas-cooled reactors. The cost reductions identified through work on Generation IV plants are applicable to Generation III designs.
Countering Montalembert's view, geh president and ceo Jack Fuller says his company's abwr is the first Generation III design to be licensed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. "geh's abwr is the world's first and only Generation III reactor design with proven construction and operating experience and more than 20 reactor-years of operational experience," he notes. "Depending on site conditions, geh would deploy six to eight abwrs for 10,000 Mwe in India." The abwrs range from 1,350 to 1,460 Mwe net.
"npcil has identified our abwr as a preferred technology," says Fuller. "Japan has four of these units in operation, two more under construction, with additional units in the planning stages." Construction times in Japan are approximately 39 months from first concrete to first fuel load. According to him, geh is exploring areas of cooperation with multiple Indian companies as part of the supply chain that will be needed to support the scope of infrastructure expansion India is pursuing.
Retracing ge's enduring presence in India since 1902 with its revenues now reaching $2.6 billion and a workforce of over 14,500 across the country, Fuller says his company is eager to explore new business opportunities for civilian nuclear power in India. This will include new reactors and plant services, fuel for existing and new nuclear power plants and possibly technology transfer as well. Pricing, he says, will depend on a number of factors related to individual projects, but adds that such information is confidential. Last December, geh petitioned the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for renewing its design certification for abwr technology for a further 15 years beyond 2012.
Meena Mutyala, vice-president of Westinghouse for India Strategy, says her company sees India as a key country in its global nuclear strategy. "Also, India has excellent manufacturing facilities, and we look forward to relationships with suppliers in India for Westinghouse projects, not only in India but also globally," she observes. "We also plan to leverage India's acknowledged English-speaking, technical and managerial talent for our future operations in the country and also for our global growth."
During Mutyala's visit, her company signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with engineering and construction major, l&t Ltd, for building the Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power reactors in India as per design provided by the Nipo-American firm. Westinghouse will also provide engineering and procurement of major components. She is emphatic that Westinghouse's technology and business model differentiate it from the competition in India and in other global markets. "The API000, for example, is the only Generation III+ nuclear power plant to be design certified by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, a certification that no competing technology can expect for at least several years," she points out.
Specifying that her company is in discussion with npcil and hopes to have site assignment shortly, Mutyala says, "Since we are in the early stages of localising significant amount of manufacturing within India, it is too early to comment on costs, except to state that we intend to work closely with Indian partners to meet the tariff requirements for nuclear power in India." She adds that the 1,154 Mwe AP1000 is the announced technology of choice in the US for no less than 14 new plants, including six for which engineering, procurement and construction (epc) contracts have been signed. Besides, initial construction activity is under way for two API000s at each of the Sanmen and Haiyang sites in China, their contracts having been signed in July 2007.
"The AP 1000 is based on standard Westinghouse pressurised water reactor technology that has achieved more than 2,500 reactor years of highly successful operation," she says. "The Westinghouse business model is also unique in that it mandates partnerships with local suppliers, meaning our company "buys where it builds", is willing to transfer technology and make the investment necessary to further develop India's already substantial nuclear infrastructure."
A cost competitive model
L&T followed up its MoU with Westinghouse with an agreement with Canada's aecl for technology to build the advanced acrIOOO candu reactor. The two companies propose to develop a cost competitive model of this reactor type that will eventually be jointly marketed in India and abroad, l&t officials say that while aecl's phwr technology is highly competitive in terms of capital cost, safety and efficiency, their company has played a leading role in equipment manufacture, construction and project management for India's domestic phwr programme.
Seth Grae, president and ceo of Virginia-based Thorium Power Ltd, that has pioneered nuclear fuel designs, maintains, "We intend to play a key role in the development of India's nuclear industry and are executing an aggressive business plan focused on collaborative long-term partnerships as well as licence-driven revenue." Speaking of Thorium Power's joint venture with Delhi's engineering firm of Punj Lloyd, he says the venture will consider deploying nuclear fuel technology in India alongwith an investment fund for investing in India and globally. Specialising in the start up of new reactors, the joint venture will likely undertake fuel design for new reactors. It may also provide services for building reactors as well as advisory services in exploring development and investment opportunities in the nuclear energy sector.
"Thorium Power may transfer nuclear fuel technologies to India that would allow their further development and use in the country," he affirms. "We will also explore establishing an operating company in India." He adds that Thorium Power will seek tie-ups with other entities in the country as it views India as an exciting and one of the fastest growing nuclear markets in the world. Grae mentions that as the only US company with a proven track record in researching, developing and testing thorium fuels, Thorium Power is a natural ally for India's pursuit of a thorium-based nuclear industry. "We now have the opportunity to combine India's scientific strengths with our advisory and technological capabilities," he observes. He also explains that the light water reactors under construction in India can well use his company's technology for advanced thorium fuels, while reducing reliance on outside uranium sources. Thorium Power, he adds, is also well placed to play a critical role in building a diversified nuclear industry in India with regard to the country's plans to deploy thorium fuels in heavy water and fast breeder reactors.
According to Grae, Thorium Power has developed fuels that not only check reactors from producing nuclear weapons usable material, but also dramatically reduce the weight, volume and long-term radiotoxicity of spent fuel. "We worked very hard on the 123 agreement and became the first American company to sign an MoU (with Punj Lloyd) following the approval of the agreement," he claims.