For a government under great pressure to contain the rising prices of essential commodities, especially food items, the overall message from the third advance estimates of food production (2007-08) ought to be most welcome. The aggregate production will touch a record high of 227.32 million tonnes (MT), 10 MT more than the final estimate for last year. Domestic production of the two principal staples, rice and wheat, are also expected to set new records. The advance estima te covers a 12-month-period beginning May 2007 and takes into account standing winter crops of wheat, mustard, and rice due to be harvested in a month's time. Wheat production, estimated at 76.78 MT, will exceed last year's by 1 MT, while rice output, at 95.68 MT, will be 2 MT more. Several other crops of maize, pulses, tur and urad are also estimated to touch new highs. The latest assessment is more optimistic than the one released in February that had pegged total food production at 219.32 MT. The total crop area has remained static at 141 million hectares. The government attributes the higher production to favourable weather conditions, good monsoon, and distribution of quality seeds. Obviously the latest food production estimates have an enormous contextual significance. They will help the government in talking down prices even before a large part of the harvested crops reaches the market. The rise in food prices has become extremely sensitive politically, ahead of elections in many States. The government has taken several steps to ease supply side pressures such as banning export of non-basmati rice, oil seeds and so on. It has also reduced customs duties on a number of food and other essential items. News of a bountiful harvest will significantly help in dampening inflationary expectations. One hopes that the estimates of food production are proved right. As long as there are question marks over the methodology of data collection and interpretation, fears over inflation will not go away. Besides, even with bountiful harvests, it is not going to be easy for the government to procure enough stocks for public distribution. Even after announcing record minimum support prices for wheat and rice, the government by its own admission, is competing unequally with private trade that has the flexibility to pay more. News of a good harvest will send positive messages to international trade. Globally, food prices have risen steeply amidst strong demand and inadequate supplies. India, which has not ruled out imports of wheat and pulses, will be in a much better position to bargain.