Breakthrough in quake predictions

  • 31/12/1997

A breakthrough in earthquake prediction through mathematical statistics, an advanced branch of stochastic and processes, has now come very close to predicting earthquakes and seaquakes, thanks to the scholastic ammunition of Brownian motion like behaviour of random stresses due to defect dynamics. At an international conference on "Recent Advances in Statistics and Probability", organised by the Indian Statistical Institute and Brussels based Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistcs and Orobability, Ritsuko S Matsuura of Earthquake Research Centre, Tokyo, Prof Yoshiko Ogata of Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Tokyo and Prof Y K Kagan of the University of Los Angeles presented their papers on "statistical modelling of earthquake data adopting a quasi real time watch of aftershock earthquake: that enabled ERC to predict the third largest aftershock of Kobe earthquake in 1992.