Breather for govt as inflation down to 7.14%

  • 18/04/2008

  • Times Of India (New Delhi)

Giving UPA some relief, the wholesale price index-based inflation rate on Thursday inched down to 7.14% from last week's fouryear peak of 7.41% after the government last week took several fiscal steps to rein in rising food prices. Reeling under concerted attack from the Opposition in Parliament as well as rising criticism from its Left allies, the softening of inflation rate spelt a respite for the government. The dip in the inflation rate came with decline in prices of fruits, gur and some edible oils for which the government had relaxed import duties. But, with vegetable prices continuing to rise by 10% over last year, government's aches may not yet go away. Tea, pulses and coconut oil prices have seen an upward movement. Despite the dip in inflation rate, the current level of inflation at around 7% is likely to continue for a while unless prices in the domestic market come down. This is mainly because the price index from April to June 2007 remained same, at around 211.5. At present, the international prices of most commodities including food articles are at a higher level than in the domestic markets. Therefore, a fall in prices in domestic market is a difficult proposition. Hence, even if the prices do not increase from the present level, inflation will continue to be around 7%. Pulling down the inflation rate is important for the government, but ministers have pointed out that global prices of oil and food had limited their options. They have argued that inflation was much worse in many other Asian countries and that at least India did not have worries over buffer stocks. Agriculture minister Sharad Pawar is hopeful of meeting the 15 million tonnes of wheat procurement for this year. The political problem for the government remains that it will be difficult to sell the "global scenario' theory to irate voters who are seeing a weekly rise in prices of commodities, fruit and vegetables. Price rise has already hurt the Congress in last year's state polls. With the government still battling the steel industry's opposition to any kind of trade restrictions, adding pressure on government to act sooner, rather than later. Steel prices as well as aviation turbine fuel rates continued to move upwards. But observers were quick to point out that the WPI-based inflation rate may not be a good measure to project a clear trend for two reasons. A high inflation rate of the corresponding week last year gives a weaker figure for the current week. Then, food items that are of greater importance to most consumers reflect less than 16% weightage in the index. The relief in inflation rate would also come in handy for the government, which has been trying to shift some of the blame on to the states