Cotton production in India is likely to sustain its growth trend during the current season. The Cotton Advisory Board (cab) under the ministry of textiles, at its recent meeting, has estimated the production at 310 lakh bales of 170 kg each - about 11 per cent higher than last season's figure of 280 lakh bales. Most of the cotton-growing states except Punjab, where there were minor pest attacks, are likely to stage a good show. "Overall, cotton situation in the country is quite satisfactory," says J.N. Singh, textile commissioner and chairman, cab. "Even in Punjab, there won't be any decline in production in absolute term." Leading from the front is Gujarat, where the production is estimated to be higher by 9 per cent to 110 lakh bales during the season. Yield per hectare in the state is all set to touch an all-time high of 743 kg, as against 718 kg last season. Maharashtra too has made some progress in the last couple of years. The state is expected to see its yield marginally higher at 320 kg per hectare, as against 288 kg last season. Maharashtra's production has gone up to 60 lakh bales from 52 lakh hectare. However, most of the area under cotton in the state is not suitable for cotton. The entire area is rain-fed and there is no proper irrigation support as is provided in a state like Gujarat. "In the recent past, the state machinery in Maharashtra has carried out certain measures to strengthen the extension system. It has roped in private agencies to educate farmers in the field of integrated crop/pest management. All these efforts are slowly bearing fruit now," states A.K. Basu, a consultant. Going by the ongoing cotton arrivals, which crossed around 200 lakh bales recently, the experts are of the view that the estimated crop size of 310 lakh bales is well within the reach. According to Cotton Corporation of India, the arrivals of cotton across all states have been normal. Besides, the quality too has been observed to be satisfactory. In the last two-three years, the Indian cotton has made a remarkable progress in terms of quality. Testimony to this is the fact that exports of cotton from the country have gone up many times recently. As against just 10-15 lakh bales in 2002-03, India exported 58 lakh bales last year. For the present year, the exports have been projected further higher at 65 lakh bales. If the market sources are to be believed, the exports may well surpass 70 lakh bales this season on the global shrinkage of supply. "The growing exports speak volumes of our improved quality. Our recent efforts under the Technology Mission on Cotton (tmc) have paid reach dividends. Today, Indian cotton is well accepted in the global market," states K.F. Jhunjhunwala, former president, East India Cotton Association, who believes that, more than anything else, improved availability of quality seed from the private sector companies has played a big role in providing boost to the domestic production and productivity of cotton. The introduction of genetically-modified Bt cotton seed and its acceptance has been a boon for the Indian cotton cultivation. The total area under Bt cotton cultivation has increased to over 60 per cent. Most importantly, the national productivity has witnessed a remarkable improvement. In fact, in the last three years, productivity of cotton has increased by over 70 per cent. The last cotton season ended September 2007 saw the average national yield touching a new peak at around 520 kg per hectare. Since there is not much change in acreage this season, the productivity is likely to move upto around 540 kg per hectare. As production and productivity have kept on growing, India has emerged as the second largest producer, pushing the US behind to the third place. For years, China and the US have been holding first and second positions, respectively, in the global cotton production, while India, despite having the largest area under cultivation, remained satisfied with the distant third. With the productivity kept on spiralling for the three consecutive years, India's production for the last cotton season ended September 2007 touched 280 lakh bales of 170 kg each, surpassing 279 lakh bales of that of the US. China's production during the same period stood at 421 lakh bales. Experts are of the view that, though the production in the US and China will remain stagnant or fall following declining subsidies in case of the US and shortage of land in the wake of industrialisation in China, India's production will continue to improve in the back of growing productivity. "India is all set to emerge as the largest producer of cotton in the next three-four years. Our production will scale to around 500 lakh bales in coming few years, if the current trendy is anything to go by," they add.