Cyclone could spark fresh protests in Myanmar

  • 08/05/2008

  • Daily Star (Bangladesh)

The junta's slow response to the death and destruction wrought by Cyclone Nargis and soaring prices for food and fuel could foment fresh unrest in military-run Myanmar, analysts say. At least 22,000 people are dead and nearly twice as many missing, and aid workers are struggling to get visas to bring life-saving supplies into the country. Food, water and fuel are scarce in storm-ravaged areas including the economic hub and former capital Yangon. Where they are available, prices are beyond the reach of most people in the impoverished country. "The people I've talked to, they are angry," said Ruth Bradley-Jones, a political officer at the British embassy in Yangon. "There is a general feeling of anger that more could have been done both before and immediately after by the authorities to both prevent the extent of the damage in Yangon and to help clear it up in the immediate aftermath." Sean Turnell, an expert on Myanmar's economy at Macquarie University in Australia, said there had been persistent rumours of renewed protests since street demonstrations were quashed in Yangon last September. Those rallies were sparked by a rise in fuel prices. Now tripling costs and four-hour queues for food and petrol after the storm could prove to be a tipping point if inflation is not reined in, he said. "People are going to be scrambling for basic survival. But I think beyond the immediate term ... one would expect the anger to mount," he told AFP. "(Unrest) is a real possibility, particularly given the regime is almost completely out of goodwill because of the events of last year." Myanmar is already one of the poorest countries in the world, with a succession of military juntas running the country's once-promising economy into disrepair since they seized power in 1962. A crippling fuel price rise in August last year spurred protests against the military government which eventually snowballed to become the biggest challenge to junta rule in nearly two decades. Up to 100,000 people, led by highly-revered Buddhist monks, poured onto the streets of Myanmar, sparking a violent crackdown by the military authorities. At least 31 people were killed, the United Nations has said, while 700 people are still detained. In a bid to placate an irate public, the junta in January announced a freeze on oil prices, but limited the supply instead, analysts say. Meanwhile, rice prices have risen around the globe. Myanmar had stood to benefit with export deals with Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, but now the cyclone has ravaged the nation's rice bowl and cast doubt on whether there will be enough rice for its own people. Win Min, a Myanmar analyst attached to Chiang Mai University in Thailand, said the junta's decision to plough on with a referendum on its much-derided constitution despite the cyclone would also lose it goodwill. Most of the balloting -- the first in Myanmar in 18 years -- will proceed as scheduled on Saturday, while voting in 47 townships worst hit by the cyclone will be postponed by two weeks. "They focus on the referendum rather than the relief," he said.