For the first time, the meteorological department will give probability estimates of drought and excess rainfall for the country as part of its much-awaited April forecast of the southwest monsoon. The department will continue to stick to a new technique it used last year for forecasting the monsoon though it led to predictions that turned out to be way off. The annual monsoon forecast is eagerly awaited by farmers across India as the June-September monsoon generates more than 80 per cent of the annual rainfall and is a lifeline for the country's rain-fed agriculture, which generates nearly one-fifth of the country's GDP. Because of key state elections as well as national elections likely within a year, the monsoon will also have a bearing on political campaigns and fortunes as it has a significant impact on the mood, if not the actual well-being, of India's rural voters. Concerned that its weather models were dipping in accuracy since 2003, the department, for the first time, had used a technique called the ensemble method