Futures trading is not pushing up inflation
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07/05/2008
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Times Of India (New Delhi)
The debate on contribution of futures trading to inflation gathered momentum, with Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia saying such trading does not lead to higher prices of commodities. Ahluwalia's comments came two days after FM P Chidambaram hinted at a ban on futures trading in food articles as part of efforts to contain rising prices. "If rightly or wrongly, people perceive that commodity futures trading is contributing to a speculation- driven rise in prices, then in a democracy you will have to heed that voice,' Chidambaram had said in Madrid, where he attended the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting. Ahluwalia said the government can take some more measures to contain inflation in case prices do not soften in the coming days. "We are not at all happy with the rate of inflation. It should come down. Government can take more measures if needed,' he said Inflation touched a 42-month high of 7.57% for the week ended April 19 as compared to 7.33% in the previous week. Ahluwalia, however, did not elaborate on specific measures that the government should take to contain inflation. Bellying the expectation that steps taken to contain inflation would impact growth, Ahluwalia said the country is likely to record a growth of 8% during the current fiscal. According to the RBI annual credit policy, Indian economy would grow between 8-8.5% during the current year. During 2007-08, the economy expanded by 8.7%. However, Ahluwalia also pegged India's economic growth at around 8% in the current fiscal year, and annual inflation, now at its highest in more than three years, may moderate in a few weeks. RBI and most other forecasts have pegged growth in asia's third-largest economy at 8-8.5% in the 2008/09 financial year as the global economic slowdown and monetary tightening takes its toll. The Indian economy is estimated to have grown at 8.7% in 2007/08, slower than the previous year as higher interest rates hurt consumer demand. "My projection was 8-8.5%,' Ahluwalia said.'I will be happy at the lower end. A growth of around 8% is quite acceptable.' An independent New Delhi-based economic think-tank said the economy is expected to grow by 8.5-8.8% in 2008/09, if interest rates remains stable, while average annual inflation may be higher than last year. The National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) said an expansionary fiscal policy would help India weather the adverse effects of a global slowdown during 2008/09. While the economy has lost altitude from scorching 9.6% expansion in 2006/07, which was the highest in 18 years, FM expects the economy to grow more than 8% in the current fiscal year. Government wants growth of 9% or above to reduce widespread poverty and create jobs. FM says 9% plus growth