G8 sees more squalls on horizon

  • 12/06/2008

  • Financial Times (London)

The waters are rarely calm for finance ministers attending Group of Eight meetings. As soon as the stewards of the global economy feel ready to take some pride in navigating through one squall, they get a better view of others looming ahead. At the G7 gatherings this year in Tokyo and Washington - Russia is only invited once a year - the prime concern was stabilising global financial markets as credit dried up, banks teetered and economic prospects dimmed. As this week's Osaka meeting of the G8 nears, markets have stabilised somewhat and international organisations are saying the odds that the worst of the financial crisis is over have improved. But finance ministers are having to live with the consequences of high inflation as food and energy prices have soared. Oil prices last week saw a jump of $16.24 in less than 36 hours to a record $139.12 a barrel. Oil yesterday traded at almost $135 a barrel. Household incomes across developed economies are being squeezed, threatening to slow economies to a crawl, ignite more ingrained wage and price pressures and undermine already unpopular governments. Rarely has it been so difficult to juggle fears of recession against those of inflation. Fukushiro Nukaga, the Japanese finance minister who will chair the meeting, said: "For advanced countries, this means that, in the short term, our growth prospects will be lower." The danger of continued feedback between financial markets and the real economy, plus the difficulties of responding simultaneously to slowdown and rising prices "will make macroeconomic management even more complicated". The effects were already being felt in Japan, where, he said, the economy was at a standstill, adding on Tuesday: "Business investment and consumer spending are moving sideways while exports are slowing amid decelerating US growth." At a briefing this week in Washington, David McCormick, US undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs, said the G8 finance ministers' agenda would be dominated by efforts to tackle fast rising commodity prices, from oil to food. The UK and France, in particular, are expected to call again for tough language on energy market transparency and increased production by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister, has said the meeting should . . . "discuss the impact of high oil prices on the world economy and the policy measures we can collectively propose". Gordon Brown, the UK prime minister, insisted that "in advance of the G8 summit, I will be proposing further work internationally to achieve a better dialogue on supply possibilities and trends in demand". Finance ministers will be aware that their meeting is, in part, a preparation for the leaders' summit in July, where climate change will be high on the agenda. Too much focus on policies intended to make energy cheaper threatens to conflict with efforts to reduce consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. On the food crisis, Mr McCormick said ministers would focus on meeting emergency assistance needs, improving agricultural productivity in the developing world, seeking to lift export restrictions and "redoubling" efforts to conclude the Doha round of trade talks. Another area in which progress is possible is exchange rates. In April, G7 finance ministers stiffened the language in their communiqu