Grain-base ethanol output may rise 31%
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04/06/2008
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FAO
The use of grain to make ethanol will rise by 31% to 124 million tonne in 2008-09, according to initial projections suggested by the International Grains Council (IGC). World ethanol output may continue to increase and the rate of expansion is likely to slow only slightly in 2008-09, despite reduced credit availability, high plant construction costs and strong grain Markets. Soaring crude oil prices will support the profitability of the industry regardless of official production incentives, IGC report said. "The outlook for global grain supplies is improved for May month from a month ago but remains tight. Increased production will almost entirely be absorbed by rising use, especially to make ethanol,' report said. More wheat and barley will be used for feed in place of maize and sorghum. "The fundamental reason for soaring food prices is that growing global demand is outstripping global supply. The rich countries should stop diverting their food crops such as maize in the United States and wheat in Europe, and their food growing land (such as the shift in Europe from wheat and maize to rapeseed) for biofuel production,' Ashok Sethia, president Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) said. Total stocks will remain very low, with a further decline in the five major exporters. Grains trade will be less than in 2007-08, increases in wheat and barley shipments being more than offset by falls in maize and sorghum. Maize-based ethanol production is likely to continue its strong growth in the new season, accounting for almost 20 million tonne, or nearly one-half of the overall anticipated increase in total cereal utilisation in 2008-09, according to latest report of Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).