Impacts of climate change: Global to local

  • 15/02/2008

  • Daily Star

The UN climate advisory body Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that global environmental change will entail increasing climate variability and increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Since 1750s onwards overall accelerated human-societal development led to activities like burning of fossil fuel, land use change and extensive agricultural practices which have ensued irreversible loss to the bio-capacity of present earth. Best estimation shows about sixty percent of the ecosystems are being degraded or exploited unsustainably across the globe; and these sorts of pressures increase the risk of trade-offs in ecosystem functions. Climate change is occurring continuously over the time, but it has become an international issue when scientists agreed on 'global warming' and started drawing future scenario impacts with their research experiences. Now, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially carbon dioxide, has exceeded its previous rate in last 650,000 years and caused the rise of global temperature by 0.740 C over the past 100 years (1905-2006); and if it so continued, it is obvious that present climate will change its trajectories negatively in 21st century. Generally speaking, climate change is characterised by increased temperature, alteration in rainfall and seasonal distribution across the globe. Though, it is easier to predict climate change at global level, but difficult at regional or local level. It is to believe that global average temperature will rise between 0.50 C and 1.70 C by the 2050s, but the magnitude of prediction may vary from region to region. Though, precipitation is thought to increase but its distribution would be uneven from regional to continental scale. Between 1900 and 2005, data shows increased precipitation in eastern parts of North and South America, Northern Europe and Northern and Central Asia and drying in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, South Africa and parts of South Asia. Climate change has negative impacts on pro-poor growth, and exacerbates inequalities in economic growth between developing and developed countries. With increased extreme climate events such as floods, droughts and cyclones, some important basic necessities such as food security, access to water and natural resources, better housing and infrastructure are now at stake. Warming of 20C will cause risk of hunger, malaria, flooding and water shortage everywhere, but these threats are most severe in developing countries, in particular for the poor people within the countries. Due to living conditions and dependency on natural resources, poor people and their livelihood assets are more vulnerable to climate shocks. Most of the poor people of African countries are increasingly becoming vulnerable to climate variability because of combined multiple stresses like HIV, declining yield potential, power conflict, drought and low adaptive capacity. Moreover, between 75 million and 250 million people are expected to be exposed to increased water stress because of climate change by 2020. Climate change is supposed to impede sustainable development in Asia because of human induced pressures on natural resources for rapid urbanisation, industrialisation and economic development. It is apprehended that crop yields continue to decrease by up to 30 percent in Central and South Asia by the mid 21st century coupled with rapid population growth, and the possible risks of hunger will remain very high in several developing countries. In the next two or three decades, glacier melting in The Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and rock avalanching that would affect water resources. Due to climate change which, along with population growth and demands from higher standards of living, create decreasing trend in freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins. Due to increased temperature and associated floods, droughts, and people's poor nutrition level, diarrhoea is already most endemic in East, South and South-East Asian regions. Besides, there is an increased risk of malarial outbreak in South Asia as a result of dramatic climate change, faulty urbanisation, agriculture practices and deforestation. Climate change not only considered as the burden of developing countries, it also affects the developed parts. Most of the European countries are thought to be negatively affected by future impacts of climate change such as heat waves, risk of inland flash floods, frequent coastal flooding and erosion due to storminess and sea level rise, and the kinds of changes will pose great challenge to economic sector and regional equity. Water security may be intense due to reduced precipitation and increased evaporation in Southern and Eastern Australia and New Zealand by 2030. Moreover, significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich sites including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Besides, in the Polar regions, the main projected biophysical effects are reductions in thickness and extent of glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in natural ecosystems with detrimental effects on many organisms including migratory birds, mammals and higher predators. Almost every year, due to various natural hazards, Bangladesh is subject to colossal loss of life and of property. New study confirms that an 1m rise in sea level would displace 13 million people, damage 16 percent of national rice production in Bangladesh as well as cause extinction of valuable flora and fauna of the mangrove forest 'Sundarbans'. If sea surface temperature is increased by 10C in the Bay of Bengal then tropical cyclone intensity would be increased by 10 percent in the adjacent areas. Recent experience of tropical cyclone 'Sidr' that hit Bangladesh in 2007 is that it affected the livelihoods of millions of people, caused death of more than 4000 people and loss of nearly 1.6 million acres of standing crops, poultry, fishery, livestock, horticulture and valuable flora and fauna of Sundarbans. Now-a-days, flood is becoming recurrent event every year, and its prolongation has a negative impact on socio-economic growth, and worsens the adaptability of poor people to shocks critically. A natural disaster survey group recorded 137 cyclones and 64 floods in Bangladesh between 1907 and 2004, and the estimated loss was worth approximately US Dollar 30 billion which is equivalent to 4 years national budget of the country. As temperature is projected to increase due to human induced emissions of greenhouse gases, and degradation of ecosystem services could become worse over the next 50 years, therefore, climate change is likely to be severe in coming decades. Climate change and resultant regional or local environmental shocks are eroding individual's adaptive capacity and increasing socio-ecological vulnerability. Moreover, people's traditional coping strategies are inadequate and have been weakened to deal with climate change. Though, it is difficult, yet not impossible to mitigate climate crises. In this regard, experts and concerned international bodies demand the necessity of significant changes in policy that will integrate future climate risks, and strengthen the perception of humanity and environment as interdependent and interacting. That is to say, more socio-ecological learning, change in consumption behaviour to common property resources ( pristine or nobody's property ), horizontal and vertical collaboration at multi-level stakeholders within the countries or regions, and trust building between developing and developed countries about climate issue in an equitable way, may contribute to face the upcoming climate threats. Ronju Ahammad and Mohammed Abdul Baten are studying ecosystems, governance and globalisation at Stockholm University, Sweden.