India must return to Eurasian energy game

  • 18/02/2008

  • Hindu

Central Asia is a difficult region, but with the right mix of political and financial capital, India could still make headway. If the great game over the energy resources of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia were to be compared to a five-act Shakespearean play, we might say Act III, Scene I has just begun. On a Venice street, Shylock famously posits to Salarino the metaphorical relationship of intricate counter-balances: "If you prick us, do we not bleed? If you tickle us, do we not laugh? If you poison us, do we not die? And if you wrong us, shall we not revenge?' The geopolitics of energy in the Central Asian steppes cannot have a better description. The interlocking trends are several. Russia remains the lead player but the United States is aggressively striving to retake some of the territory it lost. Central Asian countries have become savvier in creating space for themselves as energy exporters. Meanwhile, an ancient traveller has appeared on the Silk Road leading from Kashgar. China has raised its head above the parapet. This holds the prospect of transforming the great game over energy into a "multipolar' affair in the spirit of our times. Russia presses ahead To be sure, the robustness and sense of direction in the Kremlin's energy diplomacy in recent years have inevitably come to be associated with President Vladimir Putin's leadership. During the last two months, despite the Russian leader's watch of the Kremlin apparently ending, he continued to press ahead with his string of successes. On November 27, 2007, Russia's Gazprom and Italy's Eni signed a deal on the South Stream project, a 900-km under the Black Sea from Russia to Bulgaria. The 30 billion cubic metre capacity pipeline will strengthen Russia's position as Europe's main energy supplier and further diminish the viability of U.S.-sponsored projects such as the Trans-Caspian Pipeline and the Nabucco gas pipeline project, envisaging the transportation of Caspian oil and gas bypassing Russia. On December 12, Russia agreed with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on constructing a Caspian littoral pipeline for transporting Turkmen and Kazakh natural gas to Russia. During the visit of Greek Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis to Moscow in mid-December, Russian-Greek cooperation in South Stream was fleshed out and an accord was initialled on the so-called Burgas-Alexandroupolis project, an oil pipeline almost parallel to South Stream. On January 18, Russia and Bulgaria signed a multilateral agreement on South Stream, which could have potential branches reaching Greece, Italy, Serbia, Hungary, Austria, Croatia, and Slovenia. A spectacular deal concluded in Moscow on January 25 envisages Gazprom's takeover of Serbia's entire energy sector, shifting the locus of geopolitics of the Balkans. An American commentator warned: "Moscow plans to use Serbia's territory as a gateway to break into Central Europe.' Again, on January 25, 2008, Gazprom signed a deal with Austrian energy company OMV to jointly operate Europe's third largest energy trading hub at Baumgarten. On the same day, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Igor Chudinov announced, while on a visit to Moscow, that Kyrgyzstan would be selling its national gas company to Gazprom. Washington is scrambling to react to Russia's strategic coup. A new office has been created in the State Department