Junta faces political risks due to cyclone
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07/05/2008
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Asian Age (New Delhi)
The deadly cyclone that ripped into Burma over the weekend could shake the stranglehold on power of the country's ruling generals, becoming a force for change more powerful than massive pro-democracy demonstrations and international sanctions. Natural disasters by themselves are unlikely to trigger change, but instead tend to help undermine already corrupt or failing systems. Few people think revolution is in the air in Burma, not while the victims are still burying their dead, now totalling 22,000 and climbing. But by an unusual accident of timing, the cyclone ripped through the country on Saturday, just a week before the May 10 referendum on a proposed Constitution that the military hoped would go smoothly in its favour, despite opposition from the country's feisty prodemocracy movement. The vote now gives people a rare and relatively safe way to express their discontent with the country's junta. The higher the death toll climbs, and the less effective the government's relief efforts prove, the bigger the potential for undermining the military's mandate to rule. Already, in a society that is notably superstitious, the bad aura surrounding the tragedy has attached itself to the junta. "The juxtaposition of the cyclone and the voting might cause many in Burma to feel this is an indication that the military should not be in power," said David Steinberg, a Burma expert at Georgetown University. He said traditional views in some parts of Asia consider rulers as responsible for natural conditions.