climate forecasting systems can help predict malarial outbreaks, particularly in Africa where the disease is acute, five months in advance, says a recent study. Conducted by researchers at Botswana's National Malaria Control Programme (nmcp), Columbia University, usa, University of Liverpool and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ecmwf) in the uk, the study was published in Nature (Vol. 439, No 7076, February 2, 2006).

The early warning system (ews) for malaria is based on a climate forecast model called demeter. ews takes into account the changes in rainfall patterns and temperature. Although extreme temperatures kill mosquitoes, temperatures between 15