It may be counter-intuitive to argue that oil prices will climb during a year in which most of the leading economies are slowing down. Yet, global oil prices have been climbing sharply, hitting a new high of $122 per barrel on Tuesday. What is worse, the trend of price forecasts (including from representatives of the Organisation of Petroleum-Exporting Countries, or Opec) points to still higher prices, going up to such previously unthinkable levels as $150-200 per barrel. Perhaps the world economy is not really slowing down (the United States has so far avoided a widely-predicted recession), and perhaps growing consumption in rapidly-growing centres like China and India is enough to send prices over the top because even a 5 per cent scarcity in an essential commodity with no easy substitute can send prices soaring. India's crude oil imports in the last financial year increased by about 0.5 million barrels per day (mbd), while China's would have increased even more. Global demand is growing by about 1.3 mbd, on a base of 87 mbd; so it is clear that if China and India continue to need more energy to fuel their growth, and if the already energy-hungry economies do not reduce their own demand for oil, then global demand will continue to rise. On the supply side, there have been periodic disruptions in oil-exporting countries like Iraq and Nigeria. Without additional production