It appears Mother Nature has at last answered the prayers offered for the last more than four years by our Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, for a second Green Revolution in agriculture so that foodgrains are available in plenty and it would no longer be necessary to import wheat from the world market at exorbitant prices as he had to do last year. The third advance estimate for production of foodgrains in the country during agricultural year 2007-08 which will come to a close on June 30 ,2008, the bountiful production of wheat with thousands of gunny bags full of wheat lying in the open, the confidence exuded by the Agriculture Minister that procurement of wheat this year by the Food Corporation of India will touch the 20 million tonne (mt) figure, point to the silent setting in of the second green revolution, as it were, in answer to Dr Manmohan Singh's repeated call for ushering in of the second green revolution, the last time twice in April this year. Let us consider the statistics first. On February 8 this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operation announced that the final figure for the production of food grains in the year 2006-07 was 217.28 mt. This was not only four mt. more than the highest production of 213.19 mt so far, achieved in 2003-2004,but was also a big jump of almost 12 mt over the final figure for 2005-06,which was 208.59 mt. On that occasion, he Ministry had also announced production figures for 2007-08, according to the second advance estimate, which was placed at 219.32 mt. This was a modest increase of just two million tones over the final figure for 2006-07. However, it was a pleasant surprise when the third advance estimate was published on April 22, 2008.The food grains production figures according to that estimate was a whopping 227.32 mt. This was a full 10 mt more than the final figures for 06-07. The story does not end here. There is another estimate, the fourth advance estimate, which is to come in late June or early July, which will take into account the revised estimate for the production of Rabi food grains, particularly, wheat, gram and winter maize. Rabi production figures were included in the third advance estimate made on April 22. However, the trend in the production of wheat, which is manifesting these days, such as in the procurement figures ,clearly point to the need for an upward revision of wheat production figures at least, if not in maize and gram production. The final figures for 2007-08 will be announced in February 2009.However, one can be reasonably certain, that the figure then will be about 230 mt, not a grain less. If an incremental production of 13 mt in one year, from 217.28 mt in 06-07 cannot be described as the setting in of the second green revolution, what else can call this phenomenon? Ever since he took office in late May 2004, the Prime Minister has been harping on the need for a second green revolution numberless times, and expressing his confidence in his Minister of Agriculture and Food, Mr. Sharad Pawar, for his expected role in ushering in that elusive target. The target has evaded the country for the first two years of the UPA rule, 2004-05. and 05-06. In 2004-05, the first year of the UPA rule, it was nothing short of a disaster, as the production figure fell from 213.;19 mt to 198.36 mt , because of a 13 per cent less rainfall than the long-period average figure. However, in the next three monsoons in 05, 06 and 07, monsoon precipitation have been 99,99 and 105 per cent respectively of the long-period average. The production figures confirm this .They were 208.59 mt in 05-06, 217.28 mt in 06-07 and 227.32 mt in 07-08 (according to the third advance estimate). The trend is also apparent from the figures of agricultural growth in Andhra Pradesh, quoted in the latest issue of the Andhra Pradesh monthly magazine, April 2008 issue. According this official magazine, the production of foodgrains in the State has increased from 13.60 mt in 2003-2004 to 20 mt in 2007-08 (These figures have to be vetted by the Centre by February 2009, for final figure of 07-08). The increase in production by as much as 6.40 mt in four years in a State which is both drought and flood prone, is a clear indication of the setting in of the second green revolution in that State. This could be the story of Bihar too. This year, there has been unprecedented arrangements for procurement of wheat harvested recently. The State figures are not known yet, but the fact that despite record procurement in Punjab and Haryana, the figure of 20 million tonnes cannot be achieved without inputs from other States such as Bihar and U.P too is evidence that the second green revolution is becoming a reality. Harking back to the days of the first green revolution, one recalls that the production of wheat was only 12.3 million tones in 1964-65 which jumped, as a result of the first green revolution, to 16.5 million tones in 1967-68, the first year of the Green Revolution. Dr. Norman Borlaug, who was instrumental in India undertaking this "revolution", had told a gathering in New Delhi in 1996, attended by this reporter, that when in 1968 the green revolution wheat was harvested for the first time, schools had to be closed in Punjab and Haryana for storing the unprecedented production of wheat that year. One finds that a similar situation has arisen in Punjab and Haryana this time too, although now schools need not be closed for storing the grains. The grain is stored in the open and quickly dispatched to procurement centers. Incidentally, if the procurement totals 20 mt, hard cash (in cheques) amounting to Rs. 20,000 crores will flow into the pockets of harmers of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar among other States this year This huge cash will certainly fuel inflation to some extent, but one can ignore than if one considers the quantum of happiness that the procurement at Rs.1000 a quintal has brought in the lives of farmers after many a year. This happy situation has been brought about by three continuous spells of south-west monsoon, comparative less attack of pests and diseases, reasonably balanced use of fertilizers and the advance announcement of the price at which wheat would be procured, Rs.1000 a quintal. There has not been any breakthrough as such in another major input, seeds. One surmises that Punjab is still continuing with the PBW 343 seeds for wheat. One hopes new seeds will be developed for the next wheat season. We have so far not dealt with rice. The third advance estimated for 07-08 with respect to rice places its production at 95.68 mt. This figure is certainly on the lower side. The fourth advance estimate will give its revised performance. Maize too is doing very well, the third advance estimated placing its production at 18.54 mt. surprisingly, the production of tur (arhar) is placed at 3.03 million tonnes. Good news for States where it is the only pulse used such as in Maharashtra. Lastly, one does not hope that the Government will acknowledge the suggestion made here that the second green revolution has already set in. However, if officially released production figures are any indication, the country, the farmers, and the agricultural scientists can propose a toast for agriculture this year. Shall we chant "Jai Kishan"? Arabinda Ghose, -NPA