When T. Boone Pickens, the legendary oilman, began campaigning for wind energy in July, even Congress took notice. Indeed, a key US senate committee on energy security invited the maverick wildcatter and investor activist to outline for them his plan to use wind power to generate the 22 per cent of the US' electricity now drawn from natural gas - freeing that fuel to be used for transportation. At first blush, the plan sounds like a good one; after all, the US Department of Energy believes 20 per cent of US' power can come from wind by 2030, if massive investments are made in the clean energy source. Yet some question whether what Mr Pickens is touting as the Pickens Plan can even work - and, whether it is the best way for the US to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the country's dependence on foreign oil. "The most important thing about the Pickens Plan is that it has elevated the debate," says David Love, a managing director at CP Eaton Partners, which raises institutional capital for investment managers across the full range of alternative strategies. Mr Pickens's status has made the US take notice of the statistics the industry has long known. The US imports 70 per cent of its oil, which this year means that the US will spend about $700bn importing the fuel. And, if the US maintains its dependence on foreign oil, the projected cost to the US over the next 10 years will be $10,000bn - "the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind". Sound bites from Mr Pickens such as that, heard across television networks this summer, have had the desired effect. People have taken notice, signing up on the internet for his weekly wind energy campaign updates and going to hear him speak. Part of the draw is that Mr Pickens is not just talk. He is investing billions of dollars to build the world's biggest wind farm in Texas - the heart of the US oil country. And the state has already approved a $4.9bn plan to build transmission lines to channel wind energy from the plains of west Texas to large cities such as Dallas. In addition, the American Wind Energy Association said in September that the US wind industry had raced past the 20,000-megawatt installed capacity milestone to become the world leader in wind electricity generation. Wind now produces enough electricity to serve 5.3m American homes - just over 1.5 per cent of the nation's electricity. It is one of the nation's fastest growing electricity sources, providing 35 per cent of the total new capacity added in 2007 - second only to natural gas. "Wind energy installations are well ahead of the curve for contributing 20 per cent of the US electric power supply by 2030 as envisioned by the US Department of Energy," says Randall Swisher, executive director of the American Wind Energy Association. Yet some remain cautious. Jamie Webster, senior consultant in the Gas & Upstream Group of PFC Energy, the consultancy, has made a detailed analysis of the Pickens Plan. He says wind is not a suitable substitute for natural gas as it cannot meet heavy loads as they are needed. During the hottest part of summer days, air conditioning demand rises while average wind speed usually falls, he says. There is no good method for large-scale energy storage, so strong winds in the morning cannot cope with demand in the hot afternoon. In addition, the capital cost for the new turbines needed to grow wind energy to the extent Mr Pickens is calling for would be significantly higher than his $1,000bn estimate, given that wind power does not have the same reliability as gas generation so there will be more turbines needed than Mr Pickens estimates. Also, the political pressure to reduce coal-fired generation, given its high carbon content, means coal-fired power is the source that will primarily be displaced by wind. Mr Webster points out that winds are stronger at the start and end of the day, as the earth warms and cools, so this power will be generated at or near offpeak hours - which is the domain of coal-fired power. Wind power cannot replace natural gas generation at the same time. Finally, concentrating power generation in the middle of the country may reap the best winds but will increase costs and decrease efficiency. Losses of as much as 10 per cent of power transported will require more wind turbines. Mr Webster's solution is to turn to electricity to fuel cars, which would expand the range of energy used to power the transportation sector. But he is pleased to see Mr Pickens stepping into the limelight. "If nothing else," he says, "Pickens's initiative may move the debate in the US toward an eventual new energy policy.'' Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008