As against scathing attack hurled at Government by the opposition political parties as well as the left allies over galloping inflation in the country, the ruling party at the Centre does not find enough reasons to be so much worried since the weather forecast of meteorological department suggests a near-normal monsoon in the current year that could lead to increased farm production in 2008-09 successively after good harvest of the previous fiscal. The prospect of agriculture is certainly better under normal or near-normal monsoon in a country like India where a major part of cultivable land to the extent of 60 per cent still remains unirrigated and where there are States like Assam with even less than 6 per cent of farmland under irrigation. The Union Minister of Earth Sciences, Kapil Sibal says this year's forecast should be more reliable as the meteorological department has used a combination statistical and dynamic models unlike in earlier years when only statistical models were applied. It may be noted here that while statistical model of monsoon forecast works well in central, north-west and western India, the dynamic model is more suitable for southern and north-eastern India. Though there are many reasons for low agricultural production in the country with its per hectare yield rate approximately at half the rate of China and one-third of France, the most important reason is the poor input-base including irrigation and poor technology. The occasional crop failures are mainly due to droughts in major parts of the country and floods in some States. Thus, during the period between 2001-02 and 2006-07, production declined from 93.3 million tonnes (MT) to 90 MT in rice, 72.8 MT to 72.5 MT in wheat, 33.4 MT to 32 MT in coarse cereals and from 213 MT to 209 MT in total food grains. While demand for pulses is estimated at 16 MT in 2006-07, it leaves a production gap of 15 lakh tonnes. The production of edible oil hovers around 6 MT as against the estimated consumption of 10 MT a year. In the period between 1970-71 and 2006-07, while production of food grains in India increased by less than 90 per cent, the consumption demand has increased more than doubly not only due to increased population but also due to increased income and increased food processing. Since farmers are not getting remunerative prices, many are shifting to cash crop cultivation. Mismanagement in the supply side is also a major reason for our fear of food security. The wastage of agricultural produce in India is colossal due to bad harvest timing, inefficient machinery, lack of farming education and extension services, shortage of storage facility, contamination, inordinate exposure to heat and cold and lack of moisture in godowns. While this has to be brought down to the minimum, the public distribution system must be freed from corrupt handling. While contract farming and land consolidation should be encouraged, the government must invest in agricultural infrastructure, particularly in the areas of irrigation, flood management, farmers' education and extension services. There is no substitute for increased food production in the face of global food shortages.