Sindh floods to cut GDP growth by 0.5 percent
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19/10/2011
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Daily Times (Pakistan)
Official conservative estimates suggest that floods in Sindh would affect the gross domestic product (GDP) by about 0.5 percent and GDP growth would be at around 3.7 percent of the GDP against the target of 4.2 percent in 2011-12.
A senior official at Ministry of Finance informed here on Wednesday that recent floods would increase tremendous amount of pressure on investment in infrastructure and management of public finance as well as power sector to remain within the budgetary allocations.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme had expired on September 30 because of non-compliance to the agreed criteria of limiting fiscal deficit, passage of law from the parliament, but Pakistan would remain engaged with the fund because of their assessments impacts and the need to tackle them. The possibility of some negative fall out of expiry of IMF programme has been averted by remaining engage with the IMF and their team would be visiting Pakistan next month for article IV consultations. He said that the government wanted to go into the IMF programme in a state that some reforms have been achieved. “We must posture that as if the country is in the fund programme and continue pursing reforms agenda in the national interest. The focus of the government would be to act and demonstrate that not being in the formal IMF programme does not mean liberty in fiscal framework.s
The economic team is confident that the ongoing fiscal year would be difficult but manageable and the year of consolidation. The repayment of $1.2 billion would not be an issue because it has been budgeted but there would be serious challenges to the public finance in case of extraordinary global recession and increase in oil price or the failure to move on to reforms in public sector institutions and expenditure management.
On revenue side the economic managers feel considerable generation through administrative measures and in some cases recovery has already started. Citing an example, they said that Rs 4.5 billion has already been deposited by a firm whereas the date of OMC case has been fixed in the tribunal court. The government is also planning to go for Sukkuk Bonds in the ongoing quarter of the current fiscal year.
The official sources informed that international adviser has informed the government that time is not conducive for Oil and Gas Development Company Ltd exchangeable bond and the government is considering opting floating Rs 180 billion Sukuk and some Rs 70 billion would be realised during the ongoing second quarter (October-December) period of this fiscal year.
He further informed that negotiations on realisation of PTCL privatisation proceed arrears is at advance stage and it is expected this would materialise within the specified period. The official further informed that Pakistan has received $250 million project assistance from the lending agencies and projected assistance to come within this fiscal year in accordance with progress on projects.
The official informed that the Special Energy Committee of the Cabinet has recently finalised and proposed 11-member board of the holding company created to undertake the structural reforms of four power generation companies (GENCOs). A summary has been moved to the Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani for approval of the proposed names selected from leading entrepreneurs of well integrity for the board of the holding company which was formed by the Cabinet Committee on Restructuring (CCoR) to take care of the affairs of generation companies. The board of the holding company would start working immediately after the approval of names by the prime minister. Few names for the office of the chief executive officer (CEO) of the holding company are also under consideration and would be finalised soon.
The official informed on circular debt that PEPCO owes about Rs 300 billion and has to recover equal amount from the consumers and if the power company is able to collect the outstanding receivable there would be no circular debt. The CEOs of the distribution companies would be finalised by the board of each company and presented to the CCoR for approval. Official said that the prime minister would hold a meeting with the chief ministers of the provinces regarding implementation of the energy conservation plan approved by the cabinet to tackle the problem of load shedding, said the official.