The sum of aggregated truths
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14/03/2008
Right from the contents page of economist and author Arvind Panagariya's new book, India: The Emerging Giant, he makes you feel a bit uneasy. The first page lists all the prime ministers of India in chronological order. Why on earth would a book on the economy of India start with this information? The reason is not clear, even after you have finished reading the book. With the exception of Jawaharlal Nehru and, to some extent, Manmohan Singh, no Indian prime minister has shaped the economic design or destiny of this country. If there is some logic, it ought to have been made clear to the reader. This is a methodological problem that plagues the entire book. Consider the structure. The book is divided into distinct parts: "Growth and Economic Reforms'; "Poverty, Inequality and Economic Reforms'; "Macroeconomics'; "Transforming India'; and "Government'. By conventional practice, and for analytical reasons, growth and inequality are part of macroeconomics, as is economic reforms. So, why has the author segmented these fields and dealt with macroeconomics separately? The macroeconomics section deals only with the fiscal economy, the external economy and the financial sector. It gets even more curious. International trade is not covered in the chapter on the external sector, but in "Transforming India'. Similarly, discussions on the fiscal economy are split between "Macroeconomics' and "Government'. The quibble is not about sequencing; it is about the fact that a far better and more integrated story could be told, indeed has been told by others, within the author's own framework. Anyone with a sound knowledge of India's policymaking and its influence on growth cannot ignore the monetary management and reforms that complemented the economic and public policy reforms. In fact, after the fiscal reforms in the early 1990s, monetary policy has had a dominating impact on growth in the economy. Also, one of the unique features of public policy has been the nuanced and sophisticated use of monetary policy. The way in which the impact of external crisis on domestic policy has been restricted is a high point of Indian economic policymaking. The author devotes less than three pages to this area. In terms of style and method, the book fluctuates between being a textbook, a newspaper article and a scholarly treatise. Having the way to derive the savings-investment identity