Through a Maze of mirrors

  • 22/09/2008

  • Outlook (New Delhi)

CORPORATE America is investing millions of dollars in an intense lobbying effort to convince lawmakers in Congress to ratify the Indo-US civilian agreement, fearing it might otherwise lose opportunities to earn megabucks in an Indian nuclear industry poised to open its doors to foreign investments. For one, the US-India Business Council (usibc), a business advocacy group, has retained prominent Washington law firm Patton Boggs to "help articulate US industry's support of this historic initiative on Capitol Hill," its president Ron Somers told Outlook. The usibc is keen that Congress endorses the N-deal in its ongoing session because last week's waiver for India in Vienna now allows Delhi to participate in nuclear commerce with 44 members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (nsg). Trade with the group's 45th member, the US, must wait till Congress grants approval to the nuclear agreement. Couldn't a delay in securing this approval disadvantage American firms? India has said it will wait for Congress to approve the deal before setting off on a nuclear shopping spree. It's consequently both in New Delhi and Washington's interest to win congressional endorsement for the deal at the earliest. But supporters of the deal face a daunting foe: time. Existing US laws require that the deal must lie in Congress for 30 days of continuous session before members can take it up for an "up or down" vote. The US President sent the deal to the Congress on September 11. With the current session of Congress scheduled to end on September 26, it's impossible to fulfil the 30-day condition. A senior diplomatic source said the process was "very fluid...in the domain of speculation." Yet the 30-day stipulation could be circumvented through finely calibrated manoeuvres. For instance, the requirement could be waived in the Senate through what is called the unanimous-consent resolution. However, the resolution can be put "on hold" even by one senator. Then, the Senate Majority leader could bargain with the senator(s), asking him or her to "vacate the hold". The dissenting senator could agree in return for, say, a favour pertaining to his or her constituency. Such bargains can take inordinately long. Analysts say the N-deal is unlikely to get unanimous consent from the Senate, which passed the Hyde Act 85-12. The way out is to have the Senate Majority Leader (presently Harry Reid) file a cloture motion to proceed on the deal. If the Senate leader gets 60 votes, the 30-day requirement would be waived and cloture is invoked, limiting time for debate and vote on the deal. Donald Ritchie, associate historian at the Senate Historical Office, says this is usually (but not always) 100 hours or an hour for every senator. A vote less than 60 wouldn't get the 30-day condition waived. Lawmakers could also introduce a "resolution of approval" to waive the 30-day requirement. In such an instance, the House of Representatives' powerful rules committee would say that the 30-day stipulation doesn't apply, and send a resolution to this effect to the full House for a vote. The resolution could be adopted by a simple majority, and the 30-day requirement is set aside with Congress passing the deal as a new piece of legislation. But this poses risks