Warding off doomsday

  • 05/06/2008

  • Pioneer (New Delhi)

The alarm bells are ringing louder by the day as Earth's climate changes rapidly due to emission of greenhouse gases. We must remember that carbon dioxide emitted today will add to climate change for 150 years. Traditional knowledge can be harnessed to halt climate change, writes Ketaki Saksena Unseasonal rain and cool breeze in the third week of May this year may not be a good sign after all. The alarm bells are ringing louder by the day and this unusual spell is a sure sign of climate change. In the past, climate determined human activity but now the reverse is true -- human activity is transforming climate irreversibly. Since the inception of time Earth's climate has been dynamic and ever changing. There have been spells of ice age and warm periods. In the last 100 years the chemical composition of the atmosphere has altered due to human activity. Even if corrective measures are taken now, the adverse effect caused by past actions will last for the next 150 years. The increasing concentration of long-lived gases like carbon dioxide, short-lived gases like carbon oxide, and others like sulphur dioxide, apart from particulates, creates major environmental problems. As agriculture and any alteration in climate are intrinsically linked, the situation worsens when there is increased use of fertilisers, paddy cultivation in standing water, burning of fossil fuels, cutting of forests. It is common knowledge now that the Himalayan glaciers have receded by 67 per cent since 1935 and the Gangotri glacier is receding by 30 m every year. This is cause for concern, considering the high density population along the Indo-Gangetic plain is dependent on this river system. India's economic development is guided by the principle of sustainable development to cleaner and greener environment. However, the need of the hour is to mainstream climate change in the broader economic agenda rather than take a narrow agricultural perspective as it is crucial in implementing adaptations to climate change. At present environmental concerns are external to economic decisions. It has assumed significance and concern now like never before due to the unpredictable nature of climate change even when agriculture accounts for 28 per cent of India's GDP. India has become a food rich country since the days of chronic food shortage. Sustained efforts by scientists have been a determining factor for this achievement. As the climate changes rapidly, India remains vulnerable for its dependence on climate sensitive sectors like agriculture and forestry. Our major concerns are: Inadequate availability of water due to recession of glaciers and decrease in rainfall; threat to food security; dying of natural eco-systems such as forests on which rural households are dependent; adverse impact on coastal areas due to rising sea levels; and, the impact on health due to increase in vector and water borne diseases. A World Bank report, Agriculture for Development, places India in the category of transforming countries because agriculture is no longer a major source of economic growth but poverty remains overwhelmingly rural. This shift from agriculture-based economy has taken 20 years. Now, with innovative marketing strategies, it is driven less by science and more by market. It is important at this juncture to prioritise research in such a sustained manner so as to facilitate and benefit all the stakeholders, from producers to consumers, so as to make the chain from 'farm to plate' easy. Critical of policies advocated by rich nations, agriculture scientist MS Swaminathan has said that poor nations are faced with the need to produce more food from hungry and thirsty soil. Rise in atmospheric temperature is the first perceptible indication of change to adverse conditions. Mr Swaminathan has shown that if the temperature goes up by one degree, the duration of the wheat crop will go down by a week and this will lead to a loss of yield by 400-500 kg per hectare. Adverse changes in precipitation will affect rice production as 60 per cent of rice-growing areas are rain fed. Both wheat and rice contribute nearly 75 per cent of the total cereal production of the country. A lot can be achieved through people's participation. For instance, our rural population has traditional knowledge on bio-diversity and conservation. Women play a pivotal role as healers, nurturers, seed selectors and in seed storage. Some empirical research has revealed some amazing facts like the one found out by Honey Bee Network and Sristi. Starting Shodh Yatras is a unique endeavour undertaken for the past five years. Ten such Yatras covering 1,950 km have already been undertaken to unravel the customs of conservation of bio-diversity and creative impulses of our rural societies and to translate their knowledge to practice. A unique method discovered by the Yatra is to place a burning earthen lamp inside a seed container and seal the mouth of the vessel. The lamp will burn till all the oxygen is consumed the seeds will remain safe for several years. A network of community seed banks has been set up in different eco zones of the country. The victims of the Orissa cyclone, the tsunami and the earthquake in Jammu & Kashmir who lost seeds for the next crop have been helped by indigenous seed banks. These seed banks are as safe as the doomsday vault of 'Noah's ark of food' in Norway that has been created for "storing the seeds of hope for present and posterity". The immediate concerns of India are three-fold: Issues related to adverse impacts of climate change, including the cost and capacities of adaptation; our position at climate change deliberations; and the opportunities these negotiations may provide to promote sustainable development. To reach the goal of economic, sustainability and equity, impetus for research and development should get top priority. India acceded to the Kyoto Protocol in 2002 and can benefit from carbon taxes based on the polluter pays principle. This can help generate revenue. However, the main obstacle is to realise benefits from the clean development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol: No incentive was included in the Protocol for developing countries to preserve forests as they provide environmental services like sequestering carbon or natural sinks of carbon, managing water sheds and preserving biodiversity. Besides, Government should sensitive intellectuals and encourage peoples' movements that will raise fundamental issues and provide viable alternatives. Now is the time for each one of us to remember that carbon dioxide emitted today will add to climate change for 150 years.