Trade and development report update: April 2024
The report forecasts global economic growth to 2.6% in 2024, barely above the 2.5% threshold commonly associated with a recessionary phase. The report says the prevailing focus on inflation overshadows
Economy
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Chidambaram needs to do a balancing act Run-up to budget 2008-09
Ashok Dasgupta The Finance Minister is faced with conflicting demands from different quarters
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Expectations of the Left
Prasenjit Bose Since the Finance Minister would not have the opportunity to present a full Budget in 2009 because of impending Lok Sabha elections, Budget 2008-09 would be his last opportunity to fulfil the promises made in the National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP). The expenditure priorities have already been set forth by the Eleventh Plan. What is required is adequate budgetary support for the Plan, especially in priority areas like agriculture, PDS, education, health and employment generation. To meet the NCMP commitments, the gross budgetary support (GBS) for the Plan has to be stepped up. Budgets in 2006 and 2007 witnessed increases in GBS by around Rs 30,000 crore over previous years. It is evident that an increase of such magnitude, which amounts to less than 1% of current GDP, is inadequate for vital expenditure commitments. The increase in the GBS should be twice the amount seen in recent budgets. Agriculture, which was promised a new deal under the UPA, continues to languish. The advanced estimates for 2007-08 already show agricultural growth slipping to 2.6%, compared to 3.4% registered in 2006-07. To meet the Eleventh Plan target of 4% agriculture growth rate, the government needs to replace the half-hearted measures adopted so far with substantial allocations for debt relief, the Food Security Mission and Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana. The rise in prices of essential commodities over the last two years has underlined the importance of strengthening the PDS. Domestic food production and public procurement also needs to increase to avoid the embarrassment of high-cost wheat imports. India should increase the food subsidy, which currently stands only at around 1% of GDP. It is also time to consider doing away with the targeted PDS, which has turned out to be a failure, and introduce a revamped, more efficient and universal PDS. The ban on futures trading of wheat, rice and some pulses imposed last year should continue for the sake of stability in food prices. Education and health have been accorded high priority under the Eleventh Plan. Expenditure on the former, up five-fold over the Tenth Plan, is aimed at building 6,000 schools, funding the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan to ensure the Right to Education, building new ITIs and vocational training institutes to bridge the skill deficit, and setting up 30 new central universities along with new IITs, IIMs and IISERs to expand the country's knowledge base. These laudable objectives have to be backed up by adequate outlays. Outlays on the rural health mission and more Aiims-type institutions also have to be increased. The universalisation of the ICDS is being impeded by inadequate funding, which needs to be addressed. The NREGA, despite problems, has succeeded in providing work to 27.7 million people this year. No doubt, its implementation needs to be streamlined and the monitoring mechanism improved. However, this should not come in the way of expanding the employment guarantee to all rural districts and also to urban areas. This is the single biggest welfare measure adopted by the UPA government, and has offered relief to the poorest and most vulnerable. This safety net must be strengthened under all circumstances. The revenue buoyancy seen over the past few years should help mobilise resources for increased welfare expenditure and public investments. Efforts to widen the tax base should continue. The last Budget contained a study of corporate tax, which showed that the effective tax rate for Companies in 2006-07 was 19.2% against the scheduled tax rate of 33.6%. Tax concessions to corporate taxpayers increased from Rs 34,618 crore in 2005-06 to Rs 50,075 crore in 2006-07. Budget 2008-09 should take steps to bring down these tax expenditures. The burgeoning foreign exchange reserves built up on the basis of FII inflows have turned into a liability. Rupee appreciation is hurting export sectors and efforts to buy up foreign exchange followed by sterilisation are also leading to additional fiscal costs. Reintroduction of long-term capital gains tax and increasing the rate of the short-term capital gains tax and the STT would help stanch the inflow of speculative capital, curb equity market volatility and raise resources. Budget 2008 also offers the opportunity to initiate the long pending restructuring of the indirect tax structure on petroleum products
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Role of Planning: A Comment
A review of the role of planning should look at the possibility of expanding its role to municipalities, districts and panchayats rather than limiting it. Feb 23-29, 2008
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Focus on farm sector
By Devinder Sharma Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram should address the woes of those ailing farmers in the budget. General elections are around the corner. It is therefore more of a political compulsion than the requirements of a prudent fiscal policy that should have automatically diverted public funds for the ailing agrarian sector. Unfortunately, the game plan all these years has been to ignore agriculture and instead pamper the bloated rich of big business to grow richer. No budget is complete without the Finance Minister reminding the country, with possibly a catchy phrase thrown-in, the Herculean task his budget will perform in addressing the agrarian crisis. P Chidambaram is no exception. He often quotes a couplet from the writings of some of the best-known poets, saints and thinkers of south India. After all, 60 per cent of the population is still directly engaged in farming. Despite all these efforts to rescue agriculture, the annual budget has truly been a carnival for the rich and beautiful. As the veteran economist Kamal Nayan Kabra reminds us: "Indeed, the corporate income tax foregone by the government is trivially less than the total amount spent by both the central government and the 28 state governments on all rural development schemes.' Accordingly, in 2004-05 Rs 2.06 lakh crore was the revenue loss from the numerous tax concessions, exemptions and incentives, the total excise, customs and personal income tax and corporate income tax exemptions. In 2005-06, these exemptions amounted to Rs 2.35 lakh crore. For the debt-ridden farmers, and despite reports of farmers suicides regularly pouring in from various parts of the country, the Finance Minister will gloat while announcing that he has managed to meet the target of providing Rs 2.25 lakh crore as farm credit in 2007-08. Ironically, this is less than the total revenue loss of Rs 2.35 lakh crore incurred a year earlier from tax exemptions for India Inc. Isn't it therefore strange economics? What millions of farmers get is simple gratitude (and credit), whereas a few hundred rich walk away with almost an equal amount as direct income (money saved by way of tax exemptions is like money earned). Why can't the industries be asked to avail more credit, and let the direct income be for the farmers? I have often wondered as to how does the economist justify more credit to farmers who are already reeling under the burden of non-repayment of credit. Well, everyone knows that farmers are committing suicide because they cannot repay back the loans. Mounting indebtedness is the reason behind the death toll on the farm. Why can't the Finance Minister make an honest effort to pull these farmers from the credit trap? Why can't the Finance Minister actually provide farmers with more steady and assured monthly income? After all, like all of us what the farmers too need is a monthly take-home income package. The first step that needs to be taken is to write-off the outstanding dues of small and marginal farmers owning less than 5 acres of land in irrigated areas and 20 acres in un-irrigated regions. There is already a talk of writing-off Rs 65,000-crore, including Rs 25,000-crore, which the nationalised banks fear would be the non-performing asset. The accumulating losses that the farm sector has been incurring year after year are much higher than this amount. Such bad debts need to be immediately struck off so as to provide a new lease of life to the debt-ridden farmer. In fact, the UPA government should have done this soon after it came into power in May 2004. At the same time, lowering the interest rate for farm loans to 4 per cent across board is also required. In China, the interest rate for credit to small farmers has been abolished. Along with this, what is more important and does not require any fiscal outlay is the need to abolish the draconian law that was enacted during the British Raj. Between 1904 and 1912, the British had framed Public Demand Recovery Act, under which farmers could be jailed for defaulting the State for a paltry sum. So much so that even the jail expenses were to be borne by the farmers. The banks have very cleverly used the same provisions for debt recovery in agriculture. Striking out the bad debt needs to be accompanied by a new farm policy that guarantees against making this a recurring exercise. Unless the government ensures that the National Food Security Mission and the Rs 25,000-crore fund it has set aside for agriculture as per the recommendation of the National Development Council are diverted to a nationwide Low External Input Sustainable Agriculture (LEISA) programme, the cycle of mounting indebtedness and then writing-off loans will not end. Replacing the current system of fertiliser subsidy wherein the government reimburses the industry for production expenses can make a beginning. Fertiliser subsidy, which is expected to touch Rs 50,000-crore in the near term, should in future be provided directly to farmers. What is acting as a roadblock for implementing this recommendation is the lack of political consensus. Farmers should be encouraged to utilise this subsidy for shifting to organic means of production. Such an initiative will drastically reduce the cost of production, rejuvenate the soils, provide income to farmers and also reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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Wooing the aam aadmi
Surely car owners who get cheap petrol and rich farmers who get free water and power can't be aam? With the general elections due next year, there are obvious pressures on the finance minister to provide goodies for the aam aadmi. There are calls to abandon, or at least postpone by a few years, the fiscal deficit ceilings prescribed by the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, so that funds are not a constraint. (If most of us believe that many politicians are corrupt, they reciprocate by believing that the best way to get the vote is by bribing the voter.) Given the concern about the aam aadmi in the bleeding hearts of our political masters, I have often wondered who exactly this aam aadmi is
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Budget 2008-09: The burden of expectations
N. Ravi The challenge before the Finance Minister in preparing a pre-election budget is to balance the minimal tax sops needed to keep the markets in an upbeat mood with massive spending programmes that will find resonance with the electorate. Preparing for the election-eve budget, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram must have found the burden of expectations unusually high. Not only is he expected to provide the usual budgetary sops to please all but he is also called upon to correct the sense of drift that has come to mark the last one year of functioning of the United Progressive Alliance government and recapture the popular imagination. And this he has to accomplish without overly stretching either fiscal norms or his own credibility that will be called into question by a sudden show of solicitude at election time. Budgets are invariably characterised as pro-poor, pro-growth or pro-rich, depending on one's perspective and if such labels can normally be shrugged off, they become particularly critical at this time. In a sense, the Finance Minister will have to be riding the two horses of populism and fostering growth. For while this year's budget can be expected to lean heavily towards giveaways, it cannot ignore measures needed to sustain economic performance. True the mood of industry and the markets does not necessarily translate into the mood of the electorate as the National Democratic Alliance government found to its cost when its overdrawn
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Chidambaram cannot afford a harsh budget
Ashok Dasgupta Elections are due in many State Assemblies this year P. Chidambaram With Assembly polls due in a number of States during the year-end and the general elections in 2009, it is a foregone conclusion that the Union budget for the next fiscal, to be presented by Finance Minister P. Chidambaram in three days from now, will not be a harsh one, even at worst. For the simple reason that over the last few weeks, the people's aspirations of deriving some benefits by way of budgetary goodies have been raised so high through statements by various functionaries of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and its coalition partners that anything not matching up to their expectations would perhaps be viewed as a great betrayal. And that's something that the ruling regime can ill afford, especially when the government is set to unveil its policy programmes and statement of accounts, the fifth and final in its current Lok Sabha term. In effect, the government will not only have to but also be seen as compensating the
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Highlights: Cash surplus at record high
The Minister for Railways, Mr Lalu Prasad, flanked by the Ministers of State, Mr Naranbhai Rathwa (left), and Mr R.Velu, arriving to present the Rail Budget on Tuesday. Review of Performance: 2007-08
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Forex inflows still a 'challenge': Survey
Govt's annual report doubts ability to eliminate revenue deficit. Calling double-digit growth a tough task, the government today cited foreign capital inflow and inflation as the macroeconomic challenge to high sustained growth in its Economic Survey for 2007-08. "If you wish me to sum up in one phrase the outlook for 2008-09, I would say optimism but with caution is the watchword,' Finance Minister P Chidambaram told reporters after presenting the Survey in Parliament. The annual report card on the economy also said the target of bringing the revenue deficit down to zero by 2008-09 would "remain a challenge,' pointing to a step-up in expenditure as the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance prepares for general elections next year. Though bullish on growth, the Survey has sounded an unmistakable note of caution on the capital inflows that the country has seen in the last several months. As these inflows are substantially higher than what the country needs to cover its trade deficit, these funds threaten to raise prices, leading to a tighter monetary policy. This, in turn, is threatening to capital investments in the country. As the sub-prime crisis unfolds in the US and Europe, global investors are likely to be more risk-averse and are, therefore, likely to cut investments in emerging markets like India, the Survey says. However, this could be balanced out by the increased liquidity created by Western Central Banks to deal with the crisis. "On balance, the decline in capital inflows as a proportion of GDP in 2008 is likely to be modest,' the Survey notes. There could be a softening in global commodity prices because of the moderate slowdown in the world economy led by the sub-prime crisis in the US, the Survey says. However, the slowdown could hurt Indian exports, resulting in a modest increase in the country's deficit in trade of goods and services, unless the US slowdown turns into a severe recession, it adds. The Survey also lists radical policy reform options. These include allowing regulated private entry into coal mining, phasing out controls on sugar, fertiliser and drug industries, opening up all retail trade to foreign investment, raising foreign ownership of insurance companies from 26 per cent to 49 per cent (51 per cent for companies operating in the rural sector) and allowing foreign companies to set up fully-owned rural banks. Some of these options like opening retail and insurance sectors have been debated internally by the government in the past. However, opposition from its Communist allies has made it put these proposals on the backburner. The Survey does not mention how actively these options are being considered by the government. However, a finance ministry official told Business Standard that these are the policy reforms that need to be undertaken if the country wants to move to the high growth trajectory. "Hopefully, the inputs will be picked and debated for implementation. These are suggestions and not recommendations,' the official said. In addition, the Survey calls for amending the Factories Act that would allow companies to meet seasonal ups and downs in demand and new bankruptcy laws to facilitate the exit of old management as expeditiously as possible. It also lists an ambitious disinvestment programme of listing all closely-held public sector companies and auctioning all loss-making units that cannot be revived. For the first three years of its rule (2004-07), the government kept its word to the Left parties and did no disinvestment at all. It was only earlier this year that it decided to list all its power utilities.
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Agri sector wilts on poor capital investment
AGRICULTURE: Growth declines to 2.6% in 2007-08 from 3.8% last year. Presenting a grim picture of agriculture, the Economic Survey projects a decline in the growth of the sector in 2007-08 to 2.6 per cent compared with 3.8 per cent last year. It attributes the poor performance to reduced capital investment and plateauing of yields of major crops, besides the weather-induced productivity fluctuations. The survey also expresses concern over the slowdown in the creation of irrigation potential, degradation of natural resources, and collapse of the farm extension system, which together contributed to below-potential crop yields. It points out that the public investment in agriculture has declined and the sector has not been able to attract private investment because of lower and unattractive returns. The share of agriculture in the total gross capital formation (GCF) has dropped steadily from 10.2 per cent in 2001-02 to 5.8 per cent in 2005-06. However, the share of the GCF in agriculture in relation to the agriculture sector's gross domestic product (GDP) has shown marginal improvement from 11.1 per cent to 12.5 per cent during this period. The overall share of agriculture in the country's GDP, which used to be as high as 36.4 per cent in 1982-83, has dropped to nearly half of that and is reckoned at 18.5 per cent in 2006-07. Referring to the foodgrains production, the survey points out that though in the longer period (1950-51 to 2006-07) the average annual growth rate in foodgrains output works out to 2.5 per cent that is higher than the population growth of 2.1 per cent, but the situation has deteriorated after 1990-91. The growth rate between 1990 and 2007 works out to only 1.2 per cent, falling below the population growth of 1.9 per cent during the period. This has resulted in a decline in the per capita availability of cereals and pulses. "The per capita consumption of cereals declined from a peak of 468 grams per capita per day in 1990-91 to 412 grams in 2005-06, indicating a decline of 13 per cent during this period. The consumption of pulses declined from 42 grams per capita per day (72 grams in 1956-57) to 33 grams during the same period,' the survey states. The pace of creation of additional irrigation potential came down sharply from an average of about 3 per cent a year between 1950-51 and 1989-90 to 1.2 per cent in the Eighth Plan, 1.7 per cent in the Ninth plan and 1.8 per cent in the Tenth Plan. The survey also concedes that the new initiatives taken in the Tenth Plan for extending irrigation potential have had a limited success. While the creation of new potential remained confined to around 8 million hectares, its actual utilisation was even lower, only about one-fourths of it. The survey has stressed the need for a second green revolution, particularly in the rainfed areas, to improve the incomes of more than half of the country's workforce employed in this sector. "Acceleration of growth of this sector will not only push the overall GDP growth upwards, it would also make the growth more inclusive and biased in favour of women,' it maintains.