Global megatrends such as income inequality, climate change, demographic shifts, technological progress, and urbanisation are shaping the future of societies. Yet, their quantitative impacts on development
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The world now lives in cities. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report released recently, the world population has decisively turned urban. About 3.3 billion people live in urban areas and by 2030 that would increase to about 5 billion. This amounts to more than half of the world's population. The level of urbanisation in India, in comparison, appears much lower. Urban India accounts for about 30 per cent of the total population and its share i s expected to rise to about 40 per cent by 2030. However, the absolute numbers tell quite a different story. At present, the urban population is about 300 million and it is expected to reach 590 million by 2030. Indian cities cannot take comfort from the U.N.'s observation that urbanisation is a positive feature and cities offer the best opportunity to escape poverty. Urban poverty, housing deficit, poor quality of city planning, and weak governance are challenges to be addressed. As of now, the list of unfinished and unattended urban agenda in India is long and daunting. By 2015, about $90 billion needs to be invested in urban infrastructure excluding metro railway projects. But what would be available, on the basis of 2004 figures and projections, is only $10 billion. The national transport policy stresses the need for large investments in public transportation and the need to establish metropolitan authorities that will integrate different modes of transport and promote sustainable options. This still remains a far cry. In spite of a national slum policy and housing policies being in place, the housing deficit in Indian cities is on the rise. In 2007, the housing shortage was about 24 million units and it is expected to touch 26 million by 2012. About 99 per cent of this deficit pertains to lower income groups. The UNFPA report identifies urban governance as the key challenge in planning for quality cities. This appears to be one of the weaker links in the Indian urban context. The Constitution, through its amendments, has devolved more powers to local bodies, but they are yet to be empowered in full. Their capacity needs to be built and financial powers strengthened before we can expect them to adopt best practices in governance. Such issues are even more pressing in smaller cities, which are expected to take most of the growing urban population. Urbanisation may be inevitable but whether it will turn into a positive force or an environmental and social disaster depends on how quickly we put plans and governance in place.
Over 55 per cent of Indians will live in urban areas by 2050, a big change from now when only about 30 per cent of the country's population is urban, according to projections in a United Nations report. In terms of numbers, over 900 million people in India will be living in urban centres in another 40 years, three times the over-300 million urbandwellers today. However, India will still not be as urbanised as China where the number of people living in cities will go up to 70 per cent from the current 40 per cent. India will remain the country with the largest rural population during most of the future decades, according to the 2007 Revision of World Urbanisation Prospects released by the UN on Tuesday. By 2025, Chennai will be another mega city of over 10 million people, besides Mumbai with 26.4 million (up from 18 million in 2005), Delhi at 22.5 million (up from 16 million) and Kolkata with 20.5 million residents (up from 14 million). The population growth in many second tier cities will even be high er. In Ahmedabad by 2025, the population will grow to 7.7 million, up 50 per cent from the current 5.1 million. In Pune, 6.8 million people will live by then, a growth of 60 per cent from the current 4.4 million. Migration from rural to urban areas would continue despite attempts by the country's planners to prevent people from moving to cities, said Hania Zlotnik, director of department of economic and social affairs' population divi sion, while releasing the report in New York. Ms Zlotnik said Indian planners should try to promote economic development in rural areas. But improving agriculture and establishment of agroindustries would mean fewer people would be needed in that sector, pushing excess labour to the non-farm sector in the cities. She outlined two scenarios - either people would migrate to cities such as Mumbai, or one-time rural areas would transition into urban centres by generating other activities as has been happening in China. The annual population growth in India's rural areas has been declining since reaching a peak of 1.9 per cent during 1980-85. It will record negative growth by 2025. In comparison, the urban growth rate reached a peak of 3.9 percent during 1975-80 and has been declining since, yet will remain above two per cent till 2040. Projecting for the world, the UN report said half the global population would live in cities by the end of this year, for the first time in human history. Their number would rise to 70 per cent by 2050, most of that growth being concentrated in Asia and Africa. The number of mega cities is expected to double from the current 20 to 40 by year 2025. The greatest expansion, however, would happen not in metropolises but in cities with populations of less than 500,000 and even some of the rural areas will graduate into urban areas. The report notes that its projections will be realised only if fertility rates in the developing world continue to decline.
Half of them will live in urban areas by end of 2008:U.N. Half the world's people will live in urban areas by the end of this year and about 70 per cent will be city dwellers by 2050, with cities and towns in Asia and Africa registering the biggest growth, according to new U.N. projections. But India is expected to urbanise at a significantly lower rate than China, and is expected to remain the country with the largest rural population during coming decades. The report predicts that there will be 27 "megacities' with at least 10 million population by mid-century compared to 19 today, but it forecasts that at least half the urban growth in the coming decades will be in the many smaller cities with less than 500,000 people. According to the latest U.N. estimate last year, world population is expected to increase from 6.7 billion in 2007 to 9.2 billion in 2050. During the same time period, the report said, the population living in urban areas is projected to rise from 3.3 billion to 6.4 billion. "Thus, the urban areas of the world are expected to absorb all the population growth expected over the next four decades while at the same time drawing in some of the rural population,' the report said. "As a result, the world rural population is projected to start decreasing in about a decade, and 600 million fewer rural inhabitants are expected in 2050 than today.' The report stresses that these projections will take place only if the number of children in families in the developing world continues to decline, especially in Africa and Asia. Hania Zlotnik, head of the U.N. Population Division, expressed the hope that increasing urbanisation "will go hand in hand with economic growth.' She said more than 70 per cent of the population in Europe, North America, and many other richer developed countries already live in urban areas. But only 39 per cent of Africans and 41 per cent of Asians lived in urban areas last year . "During 2008, for the first time in history, the proportion of the population living in urban areas will reach 50 per cent,' it said. By mid-century, Asia is projected to see its urban population increase by 1.8 billion, Africa by 900 million, and Latin America and the Caribbean by 200 million, it said. China at this moment is 40 per cent urban, Ms. Zlotnik said. The U.N. expects its urban population to reach more than 70 per cent by 2050 , she said. By contrast India, currently has just over 300 million urban residents, or 29 per cent of its population living in urban areas, Ms. Zlotnik said, and by 2050 it is expected to have only 55 per cent of its population, about 900 million, in cities. "So India is expected to urbanise much less than China, and therefore it is expected to remain the country with the largest rural population during most of the future decades.'
