<p>In this report, ESCAP explores the future of urbanization in Asia and the Pacific, focusing on the dynamic shifts in the region’s urban landscape. It highlights the region’s demographic
Over 55 per cent of Indians will live in urban areas by 2050, a big change from now when only about 30 per cent of the country's population is urban, according to projections in a United Nations report. In terms of numbers, over 900 million people in India will be living in urban centres in another 40 years, three times the over-300 million urbandwellers today. However, India will still not be as urbanised as China where the number of people living in cities will go up to 70 per cent from the current 40 per cent. India will remain the country with the largest rural population during most of the future decades, according to the 2007 Revision of World Urbanisation Prospects released by the UN on Tuesday. By 2025, Chennai will be another mega city of over 10 million people, besides Mumbai with 26.4 million (up from 18 million in 2005), Delhi at 22.5 million (up from 16 million) and Kolkata with 20.5 million residents (up from 14 million). The population growth in many second tier cities will even be high er. In Ahmedabad by 2025, the population will grow to 7.7 million, up 50 per cent from the current 5.1 million. In Pune, 6.8 million people will live by then, a growth of 60 per cent from the current 4.4 million. Migration from rural to urban areas would continue despite attempts by the country's planners to prevent people from moving to cities, said Hania Zlotnik, director of department of economic and social affairs' population divi sion, while releasing the report in New York. Ms Zlotnik said Indian planners should try to promote economic development in rural areas. But improving agriculture and establishment of agroindustries would mean fewer people would be needed in that sector, pushing excess labour to the non-farm sector in the cities. She outlined two scenarios - either people would migrate to cities such as Mumbai, or one-time rural areas would transition into urban centres by generating other activities as has been happening in China. The annual population growth in India's rural areas has been declining since reaching a peak of 1.9 per cent during 1980-85. It will record negative growth by 2025. In comparison, the urban growth rate reached a peak of 3.9 percent during 1975-80 and has been declining since, yet will remain above two per cent till 2040. Projecting for the world, the UN report said half the global population would live in cities by the end of this year, for the first time in human history. Their number would rise to 70 per cent by 2050, most of that growth being concentrated in Asia and Africa. The number of mega cities is expected to double from the current 20 to 40 by year 2025. The greatest expansion, however, would happen not in metropolises but in cities with populations of less than 500,000 and even some of the rural areas will graduate into urban areas. The report notes that its projections will be realised only if fertility rates in the developing world continue to decline.
Half of them will live in urban areas by end of 2008:U.N. Half the world's people will live in urban areas by the end of this year and about 70 per cent will be city dwellers by 2050, with cities and towns in Asia and Africa registering the biggest growth, according to new U.N. projections. But India is expected to urbanise at a significantly lower rate than China, and is expected to remain the country with the largest rural population during coming decades. The report predicts that there will be 27 "megacities' with at least 10 million population by mid-century compared to 19 today, but it forecasts that at least half the urban growth in the coming decades will be in the many smaller cities with less than 500,000 people. According to the latest U.N. estimate last year, world population is expected to increase from 6.7 billion in 2007 to 9.2 billion in 2050. During the same time period, the report said, the population living in urban areas is projected to rise from 3.3 billion to 6.4 billion. "Thus, the urban areas of the world are expected to absorb all the population growth expected over the next four decades while at the same time drawing in some of the rural population,' the report said. "As a result, the world rural population is projected to start decreasing in about a decade, and 600 million fewer rural inhabitants are expected in 2050 than today.' The report stresses that these projections will take place only if the number of children in families in the developing world continues to decline, especially in Africa and Asia. Hania Zlotnik, head of the U.N. Population Division, expressed the hope that increasing urbanisation "will go hand in hand with economic growth.' She said more than 70 per cent of the population in Europe, North America, and many other richer developed countries already live in urban areas. But only 39 per cent of Africans and 41 per cent of Asians lived in urban areas last year . "During 2008, for the first time in history, the proportion of the population living in urban areas will reach 50 per cent,' it said. By mid-century, Asia is projected to see its urban population increase by 1.8 billion, Africa by 900 million, and Latin America and the Caribbean by 200 million, it said. China at this moment is 40 per cent urban, Ms. Zlotnik said. The U.N. expects its urban population to reach more than 70 per cent by 2050 , she said. By contrast India, currently has just over 300 million urban residents, or 29 per cent of its population living in urban areas, Ms. Zlotnik said, and by 2050 it is expected to have only 55 per cent of its population, about 900 million, in cities. "So India is expected to urbanise much less than China, and therefore it is expected to remain the country with the largest rural population during most of the future decades.'
One of the outstanding phenomena of the 20th century was the huge migrations of population it witnessed. It is natural to think first of the effects of war, exacerbated by nationalism and beliefs about ethnicity. A major example is the forced displacement of millions of people in Europe and the Middle East in 1945 and afterwards. But these movements are dwarfed by the migration of rural dwellers to urban areas, a process with origins in the industrial revolution but which in the past 60 years has turned from a stream to a tsunami. (Commentary)
The dark side of urban development is generating tensions of the kind that recently surfaced in Mumbai. (Editorial) Feb 16-22, 2008
Big, bigger Almost a third of the entire Nagpur district, that is 3,780 sq km, will be brought under the metropolitan region. Of this 1,520 sq km will be taken up under the first phase
A positive fallout of the unveiling of the Nano, a low-cost (US$2,500) car by Tata Motors, is that it has re-ignited the debate about urban transport in India.
The centre is the key facilitator of urban development despite it being a state subject. The Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), which was launched in December 2005, is the biggest driver in improving the quality of life for the target population of the 63 large cities (all million plus) covered under the mega scheme.
Urban growth in Hyderabad has underscored the need for restructuring urban services, starting with public utilities. This paper focuses on institutional changes with regard to the main service providers
Level of urbanization has been increasing in India since the last five decades. This trend is likely to continue in the near future. More people will become city residents, increased number of people will have to necessarily live on a limited amount of developed land. In this context, people will demand more housing and everything else associated with urban living including modern physical and social infrastructure. These facilities will be provided with intense use of technology. This urban condition could have devastating climatic and sustainability consequences.
Nigeria has a total land area of 983,213 km2 occupied by about 120 Million people: The interaction of these millions of people with their environment has left indelible mark on the landscape. Urbanization, deforestation, desertification, over population and all kinds of pollution are some of the resultant effects of man's interaction with his environment. These changes occur as the people attempt to acquire their seemingly endless desire for food, shelter, recreation and infrastructural facilities. Jan 2008
