Impact of the global financial and economic situation on agricultural markets and food security
Agricultural prices have fallen heavily since their peaks in the first half of 2008: some are already at the levels seen in early 2007 before the recent spike began. Thanks in part to economic downturn, prices are expected to continue falling in 2009. Prices of inputs such as fertiliser and oil, and ocean freight rates, have also come down; and by even larger fractions than those of outputs. Food security and nutrition depend on the incomes of the poor and local price levels of foods, as well as general health conditions. So many intermediate variables intervene that making ex ante predictions risks too much guessing. Hence here the experiences of Indonesia, Mexico and Zambia when facing economic recessions in the 1990s have been reviewed. This shows the expected correlation between economic recession and rising rates of poverty. But there are some signs in these cases that the poor found ways to buffer themselves a little against hard times. Less obviously, the nutrition data for young children does not show any clear sign of deterioration in these economic crises, suggesting that while poverty and hardship may have intensified, long-term damage to the prospects of infants did not take place