Grim reality of India`s poverty dip
parshit Kurmi, a daily-wage labourer in Delhi since 1991, was puzzled when he was told that the government's latest estimate had found poverty levels were coming down. For the past 16 years, Kurmi's life has been uncertain as he struggles to survive. "In Delhi, I earn more, but am poorer because I spend cash on everything,' he says. The government has a different take. According to the new poverty index, Kurmi is neither poor in Delhi nor in his native Chhattisgarh. Unsurprisingly, government statistics don't cut any ice with him. "Since 1991, I have been hearing that poverty has gone down. But in the village most people have become poorer,' he says.
The new poverty line for rural India is Rs 356 a month and Rs 538 a month for urban India. Those spending less are categorised poor. This means Kurmi's daily bus fare suffices to keep him above the poverty line. "Most people in a village spend Rs 356 a month.So, who are the poor? Poverty in my state has not reduced,' Kurmi argues. Despite the low base fixed by the government, a large chunk of population is still below the poverty line. (see table: Thin trickle). And poor residents in the poorest states, like Chhattisgarh, will continue to be poor for a long time.
The Planning Commission's new poverty estimate, based on the National Sample Survey Organisation's (nsso's) 61st round of survey on consumption expenditure, has a critical significance. There are two methods nsso uses: the uniform recall period (urp) for consumption is based on a 30-day recall for all heads, while the mixed recall period (mrp) fixes 30 days for food and 365 for other commodities. The two estimates can be compared. In the pre-reform period, the commission's estimates of 1983-84 and 1993-94 used the former, while in 1999-2000, well into the reform phase, it used the latter. The latest estimate for 2004-05, used both, which makes it ideal for a comparative study over time of the impact of economic reforms on poverty alleviation.
The current estimate shows that even while poverty is lessening, it is becoming more chronic in states with a history of poverty: the poorest cannot move out of the poverty trap. India had 301.7 million