How close are INDCs to 2 and 1.5°C pathways?
The climate targets so far submitted to the UN by governments collectively lead to global emissions far above the levels needed to hold warming to below 2°C, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) said. The analysis by the consortium of four research organisations was released in Bonn where Governments are meeting for the second to last week of negotiations ahead of Paris. Around 65% of global emissions are covered by the “Intended Nationally Determined Contributions” (INDCs) submitted by 29 Governments as of 1 September 2015. The CAT has assessed 15 of these INDCs, covering 64.5% of global emissions, and has rated seven as “inadequate,” six “medium” and only two as “sufficient”. The CAT analysis shows that in order to hold global warming below 2˚C, governments need to significantly strengthen the INDCs they have submitted to date: they need to collectively reduce global emissions by a further 12-15 gigatonnes of CO2e by 2025, and 17-21 gigatonnes of CO2e by 2030.