Long-term energy scenarios and low-emission development strategies: stocktaking and alignment

Long-term energy scenarios (LTES) are a vital planning tool for guiding the transition to a clean, sustainable and increasingly renewable-based energy system. Following COP21 in Paris in 2015, countries have also begun to develop long-term low [greenhouse gas] emission development strategies (LT-LEDS), to explore the challenges and opportunities associated with the structural transformations needed to reach carbon neutrality and meet the targets of the Paris Agreement. As of October 2022, 36 out of the 53 LT-LEDS submitted so far to the Secretariat to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have featured quantitative scenarios as their main tool to outline alternative pathways and targets, and to assess the short- and medium-term policies needed to reach their long-term targets.