Vision 2050: update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2023
This paper updates a 2022 ICCT study on the vehicle carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions impact of an accelerated global transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). It updates historical data through 2021 and 2022; accounts for policy developments in Zero Emission Vehicles Transition Council (ZEVTC) markets from August 2021 (the cut-off for the 2022 study) to March 2023; adds announced electric vehicle (EV) targets for emerging markets and developing economies in Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa; and adds the impacts of global agreements. This study compares the emissions trajectories of the updated scenarios to the 2022 study and to Paris Agreement-compatible emissions pathways for vehicles. These pathways include a 2°C pathway, a 1.7°C pathway, and a 1.5°C pathway, assuming vehicles use a proportional (21%) share of the total remaining carbon budget. The policy scenarios from the 2022 study were re-modeled with updated data to allow for a consistent comparison.
