Facing all-round flak on galloping inflation, the government on Wednesday tried to wash away some of its worries by predicting a "near-normal' south-west monsoon for the year, suggesting that increased farm production could be expected. A good measure of the attack hurled on the government by allies and opponents has attributed price rise to sluggish agricultural growth. A "near-normal' monsoon forecast in a country where only 40% of the cultivable land is irrigated should come as good omen for all. Earth sciences minister Kapil Sibal said this year's forecast should be more reliable as the Met department was using a combination of "statistical' and "dynamic' models, unlike earlier when only statistical models were applied. "The statistical model works well in northwest, central, northern and western India while the dynamic model is better for peninsular and northeastern India. Using the two models, India Meteorological Department's long-range forecast for the country as a whole is likely to be near normal,' Sibal told reporters. But inflation clearly dominated the minister's mind as he referred to the debate on the issue that was on in Parliament. Sibal came under attack in the Rajya Sabha for stating that the government had no "magic wand' to check price rise. This year, monsoon rainfall, which occurs between June and September, is expected to be 99% of the long-period average with a model error of 5% (rainfall of 94-104%). The forecast for last year was 95% (of the long-period average) using the statistical model, but the actual rainfall was 105%. IMD will update its prediction in June when it makes the second-stage forecasts. Separate forecasts for July rainfall (crucial for Kharif crop) and seasonal rainfall over the country's four geographic regions will also come in June. Sibal said the large ensemble of inputs should provide more accuracy to the final forecasts. The La Nina factor (cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean) is also positive this year, indicating better monsoon rains. During August 2007, La Nina conditions developed over equatorial Pacific with colder than normal sea surface temperatures but during recent weeks, negative SST anomalies weakened across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.