Watch Tower: More production only can bring down food prices

  • 24/04/2008

  • Central Chronicle (Bhopal)

The real solution for meeting shortages is to increase supplies instead of imposing controls. There is ample scope for increasing production of food grains -Brij Bhardwaj World is facing serious crisis in terms of finding enough to feed teeming millions and at the same time also meet the growing needs for energy to feed the appetite of Asian giants like China and India who after years of having lived as countries mainly engaged in agriculture are now emerging as new economic giants with growing need to feed their plans for rapid industrialization. This along with slow down in largest economy in the world U.S.A has created a major imbalance which can push the world into a recessionary phase after years of strong growth. Any of these factors alone could have created serious issue for India which after years of self sufficiency in food grains has been experiencing shortages because agriculture sector has not grown for many years or grown nominally only leaving a gap which had to be filled. In ordinary times this gap could have been made up through imports as country is flush with hard currency but imports of late have become difficult if not impossible as wheat prices in world markets have more than doubled because of years of drought in Australia and diversion of some agricultural land for producing items like ethanol for producing biofuels. This alone could have been a serious enough problem and India could have coped with it, but in addition we are facing two more problems. One relates to energy consumption with crude oil selling above 100 U.S dollar mark and Indian rupee rising in value thus affecting our ability to compete in world markets as well as creating serious problem of inflation which after having remained under control around four per cent is now above seven per cent which is hitting the poor and middle classes hard. These factors have created a crisis and require new tools for management as these can undermine our growth potential seriously. The estimates have been revised and there is no more talk of India reaching a double digit growth in the near future. Even the target of 8 per cent growth is in doubt as leaders like Finance Minister P. Chidambaram are seriously considering the option of sacrificing growth to control inflation. In such a situation the worst threat to India is not posed by economic factors alone but by populist theories and options being suggested by political parties in power and those in opposition. With elections round the corner the competition for populist slogans is likely to grow instead of being kept in check. Talks like supplying rice at unrealistic price of rupees two per kilo, free power and distribution of T.V sets for poor are some of the schemes which are being mentioned in this context. One can easily predict that this clamor for cheap popularity is likely to grow instead of being checked. To say the least such a scenario will not only make things difficult for Government in power but also make things difficult for those who may come in future. A casual study of current political thinking gives no indication that politicians are aware of changing world scenario and continue to harp on old lines. The cries are being heard to ban future trading in commodities, impose new controls and check hoarding. The past experience clearly shows that imposition of State controls only make the situation worse as it brings back the ghost of black marketing and hoarding in a bigger form. It was with great difficulty that India got out of clutches of a regime in which shortages were common and people had to wait for long periods to get simple things like a telephone connection or a new car. As for supply of food items through State run shops the experience is even worse as most of the items go into black market instead of meeting the needs of poor. In this context one can not help but mention the case of Kerosene and gas supplied by oil companies at below cost. A large quantity of Kerosene is mixed with diesel and sold in market while there is a thriving racket in supply of gas which is diverted for use by commercial establishments. The real solution for meeting shortages is to increase supplies instead of imposing controls. There is ample scope for increasing production of foodgrains as at current rate our production is only half of what china gets from same plot of land. For years there has been talk of increasing production by supplying better inputs and bringing about second agricultural revolution in the country. The need for such an approach can not be overemphasized. Time has come when India while meeting current shortages through adequate fiscal measures as well as by checking hoarding, but in for long term solution needs to produce more. Policies should aim at increasing outputs and not giving free doles as is the norm at present. Time has come when we as a growing economic power look for realistic solutions instead of pushing the problems under the carpet. -NPA