El Nino and Indian droughts- A scoping exercise
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31/05/2014
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Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)
The paper approaches the question of disconnect between El Nino and Indian droughts by exploring the timing of El Nino developments in a year and its relation with monsoon rains. The researchers connect an India specific El Nino (ISEL), based on tracking temperature anomalies of three months moving averages for specific months (April-May-June to September-October-November), captured in the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) The choice of these months is dictated by the fact that June-September rainfall months must of be part of three monthly moving ONI anomalies, either as the ending month or beginning month.