Price rises threaten progress on poverty
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10/04/2008
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FAO
The rising cost of basic foods risks wiping out a decade of efforts to combat global -poverty and could trigger further riots in the world's poorest countries, leading multilateral institutions warned yesterday. The World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organisation and the International Monetary Fund were unanimous in concluding that the rising appetite of the bio-fuels industry was part of the reason for the increase in food prices. But they also said that -rising consumption in emerging countries and what the World Bank described as a "sense of complacency" towards agricultural investment over the past two decadeswere part of the problem. In the past 20 years, a number of developing countries have become net importers of food because of rising internal consumption and a slowdown in agricultural productivity. That is now accentuating the impact of rising food prices. The bank said in a note on food policy options addressed to finance ministers meeting this week in Washington that rising prices threatened to undo efforts to combat poverty. "For many countries and regions where progress in reducing poverty has been slow, the negative poverty impact of rising food prices risks undermining the poverty gains of the last five to 10 years, at least in the short term," it said. Gordon Brown, British prime minister, yesterday called for the IMF to help net food importing countries cope with "rising food prices which threaten to roll back progress we have made in recent years on development". Mr Brown, in a letter to Yasuo Fukuda, Japan's PM and G8 president, also called for a review of the impact on food prices of biofuel production. The bank's warning came as the head of the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organisation warned that food riots, already hitting countries from Haiti to Ivory Coast, could become commonplace and trigger an increase in poverty. Jacques Diouf, FAO director-general, said: "There is a risk that this unrest will spread in countries where 50-60 per cent of income goes to food." Most sub-Saharan African and some south-east Asian countries fall into that category. Global policymakers are scrambling to develop a coherent response amid food riots in developing countries and the imposition of export bans on scarce foodstuffs. Talks are gathering pace as it becomes clear to policymakers that price rises of farm commodities are structural. The bank said food prices would remain elevated throughout 2008 and 2009 and would not return to the levels of the early 2000s, at least until 2015. Average food prices have risen 45 per cent in the past nine months, creating acute problems for people who rely on a few staple foods. The IMF warned that further rises were possible in the short term. Although food price cycles in the past had typically averaged three years, with supply responding quickly to changes in demand conditions, the current cycle was likely to last longer. "The reason is that food demand is expected to continue increasing rapidly for some time with rising biofuel production in the US and the European Union, and with continued strong demand from emerging and developing economies." Although not explicitly critical of its previous policies, the World Bank noted that its funding for farm projects fell to 12 per cent of total lending last year, from 30 per cent in 1980. Before any fresh investment in agriculture matures in the next 10 years, the bank said, the best way to help reduce domestic prices and improve food security was to continue cutting import -tariffs on staples, while providing targeted cash transfers to vulnerable social groups. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008