Weather Predictions

World migration report 2024

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) launched the World Migration Report 2024, which reveals significant shifts in global migration patterns, including a record number of displaced people and a major increase in international remittances. The report highlights that international migration remains a driver of human development and economic growth, highlighted …

The mysterious workings of the rain cloud

Contrary to what it says in the song, the rain in Spain does not stay mainly in the plain. It falls mostly in the mountainous regions of Cantabria and Asturias. Ask meteorologists why, and they will explain that the prevailing winds pick up moisture over the Atlantic, and that when …

Wind power forecasting in India

As India experiences rapid economic development, energy scarcity is becoming a critical barrier to further sustained growth. Costs of conventional power plants are high. Excessive use of fossil fuels and natural sources of conventional power plants will harm the environment and contribute towards climate change. The role of renewable energy …

Wind power generation forecasting: Need and possibility in India

Wind resource availability and hence the power generation from wind power projects is variable in nature. Since the share of wind power generation is growing in India, the grid generation issues resulting due to this variable nature of wind power will have to be addressed if the growth is to …

Extreme rainfall events: Vulnerability analysis for disaster management and observation system design

Extreme rainfall events today pose a serious threat to many populated and urbanized areas worldwide; an accurate estimate of frequency and distribution of these events can significantly aid policy planning and observation system design. We report here a first-ever high-resolution (10 KM) analysis of heavy rainfall episodes (defined as 24-hour …

Some studies of interannual variation of southwest monsoon over Gangetic plain

Some teleconnections studies between the monsoon rainfall over four meteorological subdivisions namely, plains of west U.P., East U.P., Bihar Plains and Gangetic West Bengal, thus constituting an area of U.P., adjoining Bihar and West Bengal and different thickness anomaly and geopotential heights over several levels in the troposphere over India …

Who can eat information? Examining the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecasts and regional climate-risk management strategies

Southern Africa is a region facing multiple stressors, including chronic, recurrent food insecurity and persistent threats of famine. Climate information, including seasonal climate forecasts, has been heralded as a promising tool for early-warning systems and agricultural risk management in southern Africa. Nevertheless, there is concern that climate information, for example …

Simulation of a Himalayan cloudburst event

Intense rainfall often leads to floods and landslides in the Himalayan region even with rainfall amounts that are considered comparatively moderate over the plains; for example, ‘cloudbursts’, which are devastating convective phenomena producing sudden high-intensity rainfall (∼10 cm per hour) over a small area. Early prediction and warning of such …

Climate risks/opportunities management and decision making: An international initiative between Australia and India

Climatic changes, droughts, floods, heat/cold waves, pests, diseases and poverty dynamics is a complex phenomenon demanding multidisciplinary management of early warning systems, risk assessment, insurance and mitigation.

Extreme weather events over India in the last 100 years

India being mainly an agricultural country the economy and further its growth purely depends on the vagaries of the weather and in particular the extreme weather events. The information on extreme weather events lie scattered in the scientific and technical papers and in the research work of many authors and …

Epidemiology of tropical cyclones: The dynamics of disaster, disease, and development

Tropical cyclones—variously defined as hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones—regularly impact human populations and periodically produce devastating weather-related natural disasters. The epidemiology of tropical cyclones is fundamentally determined by the physical forces of massive cyclonic systems intersecting with patterns of human behavior. The destructive forces of cyclonic winds, inundating rains, and storm …

Prediction of western disturbances and associated weather over Western Himalayas

Two cases of intense western disturbances which affected the northwest India have been investigated using the India Meteorological Department’s operational limited area analysis and forecast system. The model results are compared with the synoptic observations, which have been enriched by additional stations installed under the national project ‘Parwat’. The analysis …

An empirical model for predicting the decay of tropical cyclone wind speed after landfall over the Indian region

An empirical model for predicting the maximum surface wind speed associated with a tropical cyclone after crossing the east coast of India is described. The model parameters are determined from the database of 19 cyclones. The model is based upon the assumption that tropical cyclone winds decay exponentially after landfall. …

Models for agricultural drought investigations at Koraput (Orissa)

Rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature data of 32 years (1970-2001) at Semiliguda, Koraput (Orissa) were analysed to study the weekly, monthly and yearly drought investigation by studying the water balance. The IMD method was adjusted more suitable for drought identification than the revised IMD method. Frequency analysis was done …

Tropical cyclones in a warmer world

About 80 tropical cyclones (with wind speeds equal to or greater than 35 knots) form in the world’s waters every year. Of these about 6.5% develop in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Since the frequency of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is about 5 to 6 times …

An overview of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its relation to monsoon and mid-latitude circulation

In the past decade there has been extensive research into tropical intraseasonal variability, one of the major components of the low frequency variability of the general atmospheric circulation. This paper briefly reviews the state-of-the-art in this research area: the nature of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, its relation to monsoonal and extratropical …

The onset of the southwest monsoon of 1990

Statistics relating to the date of onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala for the 100-year period 1891-1990 reveal that the mean and median dates of onset for south Kerala are 31 May and 1 June, with a standard deviation of 8.5 days. Declaring the date of monsoon onset is …

A Parsimonious model for prediction of monsoon rainfall in India

A research paper by Gowariker have used multiple and power regression involving 15 independent variables for long range forecasting of monsoon rainfall in India. They have also argued that, when most of the independent variables are 'favourable' almost invariably the monsoon rainfall is normal. In this note we formalize this …

Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land

Records of hemispheric average temperatures from land regions for the past 100 years provide crucial input to the debate over global warming. Despite careful use of the basic station data in some of these compilations of hemispheric temperature, there have been suggestions that a proportion of the 0.5

Promise me the monsoon

 @sunitanar Why this weird weather? Why have western disturbances—the extra-tropical storms that originate in the Mediterranean and Atlantic seas—been lashing us again and again, with devastating impacts on agriculture? Is this normal? Or has weird weather become the new definition of normal? The India Meteorological Department says the severe and …

Precision observations on weather and crops

Earlier researches have shown that forecasts of crop acreage and yields can be made on the basis of weather factors. Where adequate data exist such forecasts may be more accurate than those arrived at by the subjective methods used in the official forecasts of most countries. Original Source

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